Villanova vs. Michigan: Key matchups in the national championship game
Villanova and Michigan are seeking the Holy Grail of College Basketball. Here are the keys for both teams.
Villanova Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Villanova’s offense has been on full display throughout the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats are first in KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency (Offense) and they’ve averaged 84.8 points a game in the tournament.
The offense starts with point guard Jalen Brunson. The versatile point guard is a more talented version of his father, Rick. He doesn’t beat defenses with his speed, he does it with strength and IQ. He uses a change of speed to beat defenders above the three-point line. Once he’s within the three-point circle, he uses his physical abilities to beat his opponent. Once, he has his opponent concentrating on stopping him from scoring off the bounce, he kicks it out to his teammates.
Villanova’s 5-out and 4-out-1-in sets allow them to spread the court where Mikal Bridges, Phil Booth, Donte DiVincenzio and Collin Gillespie are waiting. As if that is daunting enough, Eric Paschell is your classic inside-out threat and Omari Spellman provides rebounding and toughness in the lane.
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When you try to take all of this away, Coach Jay Wright can go 4-out1-in with Brunson in the post.
So how does Michigan combat this? It will all start with their on-ball defense. The Wolverines can’t allow Villanova to spread and penetrate. This has been Coach John Beilein’s best defensive team in his coaching career. It was their defense that turned around the Final Four game against Loyola (Chi). Down 29-22 at the half, the Wolverines stepped up by stopping penetration which allowed them in contest an incredible amount of shots.
Michigan contested 24 of Loyola-Chicago’s 27 shots in the second half (89%), including its first 16 shots. The Ramblers did not have an open shot in the second half until there was 4:53 remaining. The Ramblers were 9-of-24 on contested shots in the second half (37.5%). pic.twitter.com/0MDYfKnL0J
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 1, 2018
Contesting shots will be the key to covering a Villanova team that broke two records in their Final Four win over Kansas. They set a record with 18 three-pointers made in a Final Four game and three-pointers attempted in a single season.
Michigan is third in the country in Adjusted Efficiency (Defense).
Michigan Offense vs Villanova Defense
Michigan’s diversity on offense can match Villanova’s except it’s in a different way. It starts with their prototypical stretch four, Mo Wagner. There are two main spots you’ll find Wagner. The first spot has him in the post.
When Wagner is down there, you’ll see a couple of things. The first one is a 4-out-1-in set that will allow Wagner isolated on a big down in the post. From there, he’s looking to go to his jump hook or a pump fake, step through move that has resulted in plenty of “and one’s”. It was this set that kept Michigan in the game in the first half when they were struggling offensively. Wagner’s offensive rebounds and stick back prevented Loyola (Chi) from having an even bigger lead at halftime.
The second will have him set a flex screen. That will allow the wing to use a flex cut putting the Wolverines in a two-man game with Wagner in the post. If Wagner is in the short corner, it gives him an iso opportunity from 6-8 feet from the basket. If he’s still in the post, he’ll go to the aforementioned moves or he’ll kick it out to a teammate if help comes.
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The two other players on the perimeter that are key for Michigan are Duncan Robinson and Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahkman. For Robinson, his two second-half three-pointers helped Michigan in their Final Four comeback.
Abdur-Rahkman was a different story. He was 0-7 in the first half including 0-4 inside 10 feet. In the second half he was slightly better going 2-4 both makes coming within the 10 foot range. This cannot be the case against Villanova. Abdur-Rahkman must be the duel threat he’s been all season. He’s a 37% three point shooter and can get to the rim off the dribble with the best of them.
On defense, Villanova will need to contain Wagner in the post. That will either fall on Paschall or Spellman. Both players have covered combination players all season so it won’t be foreign to them.
After made baskets, how much will we see the 1-2-2 three quarters press? Generally, that’s used to slow teams down and eat up the shot clock. Depending on Beilein’s strategy, the Wolverines might want the game to be slower. The Wildcats might be better served by using some full-court man/traps to speed Michigan up especially in the second half.
Next: Michigan ends the Cinderella run
Prediction
Even when UVA had the number one ranking, it felt like Villanova was still the best team in the country. They can win games played at various tempos. Slow them down, and they can use their ball movement to find lanes. Speed them up and they’re effective in the initial and secondary break. Choke off the three-pointers and they’ll kill you in the post. It’s the ability to win in multiple fashions that will make the difference.
Villanova 77 Michigan 63