Big East Basketball: Best and worst-case scenarios for each team in 2018-19
By Brian Foley
Butler Bulldogs
Last year: 21-14 (9-9), NCAA tournament second round
Key Departures: F Kelan Martin, F Tyler Wideman
Best Case
Kamar Baldwin, who takes over for Martin in the ever-growing line of Butler stars, pushes his scoring and assists numbers up towards the league leaders and maintains his high-level defense on the other end of the floor. Sean McDermott assumes more responsibility on offense and manages to sustain his incredible efficiency numbers. Paul Jorgensen’s 3-point percentage lands closer to 40 than 30, and Aaron Thompson turns into a reliable off-ball guard as a secondary scorer and distributor.
Transfer Jordan Tucker gives the Bulldogs’ high-level minutes once he is eligible in December, and sparks an otherwise mediocre frontcourt. Head coach LaVall Jordan establishes himself as one of the game’s best up-and-coming coaches, while Butler finishes in the top two in the Big East and earns a stellar seed come tourney time.
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Worst Case
Baldwin’s efficiency numbers, which were only okay as a second option (104.1 offensive rating), fall even further with all eyes glued to him. His defense also suffers as he tries to store energy for offense, where he is the only true playmaker on the team.
McDermott shooting numbers slip with a bigger burden; he also fails to develop his passing skills on the wing. Tucker is a non-factor after becoming eligible for conference play, and Thompson proves that his 89.6 offensive rating (second-worst among Big East players in 2017-18) was about more than just the freshman learning curve. Without Martin and his massive usage rate, quality rebounding, and minimal turnovers, Butler slides down the standings and into the NIT for the first time since 2006.