NCAA Bracketology: Buy or sell mid-major bubble teams in 2019

By TJ Miller | Feb 5, 2019

CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 16: The Lipscomb Bisons bench reacts at the start of their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 16, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /

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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 19: Dwayne Brown Jr. #2 of the Utah State Aggies lays up the ball against the Saint Mary’s Gaels during the first half of a semifinal game of the MGM Resorts Main Event basketball tournament at T-Mobile Arena on November 19, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images) /

Utah State – SELL

Record: 17-5 (7-2 MW)

NET: 38

Best wins: vs. Saint Mary’s, at UC-Irvine

Utah State is a talented team and has a legit shot at making a run in the Mountain West tournament. Also, Sam Merrill is one of the best juniors in the country and should be getting more attention. With that said, I have to sell the Aggies’s current state as an at-large bubble team.

The non-conference slate for Utah State included a 10-3 record. No shame in losing at Houston and dropping a neutral court game to Arizona State and at BYU isn’t horrible. It’s just these kind of losses need to be paired with better wins than Saint Mary’s and UC-Irvine. Quality wins is one of the selection committee’s cries year-to-year and Utah State don’t have a clear one to date.

On the bright side, Utah State has won its last six games so this group has some momentum. Unfortunately, this was after the Aggies started 1-2, losing in a blowout at Nevada and a nail-biter to Fresno State. To make matter worse, the Mountain West has been a one bid league two of the last three years, and this season seven of the eleven MW teams already have ten or more losses.

The road ahead won’t be easy as it will be three of four away from home and almost a month until Nevada visits town on March 2nd. Utah State can probably afford, at most, one more loss and scoring a win over Nevada seems like a must. An 8-1 record down the stretch would mean a 25-6 (15-3) and perhaps enough to merit an at-large nod mark but I don’t see it happening.

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