UNC Basketball: NBA Draft profile of North Carolina wing Nassir Little

Strengths: Physical Tools, Intriguing Flashes, Character

physical profile, prototypical wing size, strength, flashes of self-creation in HS, lob finishing…

Simply look at Nassir Little and you can understand why teams are so drawn to him as a prospect. He’s 6-foot-6, with a massive 7-foot-1 wingspan with a solid 8-foot-8.5 standing reach and sturdy 224-pound frame, and one of the younger prospects in the class having turned 19 in February.

He has prototypical size on the wing, with the girth and strength to play against 3’s and 4’s without much issue, more than capable of banging with the bigs down low when necessary. He’s one of the stronger players in the draft, especially after having bulked up to play the ‘4’ while at UNC — his 2018 summer transformation between his all-star appearances and Bahamas scrimmages is quite notable and well-documented, going from a lanky high-schooler to a toned collegiate freshman.

With such a lengthy wingspan and strong build, Little draws significant intrigue from NBA teams over his potential to switch against several positions (perhaps 1-4) at the next level. As noted, his strength is at a place where he can hold up against some big men, and his current lateral quickness is aided greatly by his long arms, which give him some extra room for error when defending the point of attack, since he has the reach to contest shots or tip passes even if he’s a split-second late when keeping up with his man (theoretically speaking, that is).

He was inconsistent on the defensive end as a freshman, which isn’t unusual for teenagers who are acclimating to the college game, especially a Roy Williams-run defense, but he showed some improvement in the latter portion of the season, making plays off the ball and showing more resilience defending NBA-caliber guys one-on-one (like Zion Williamson on Duke and Chuma Okeke on Auburn), using his strength and length to give them little breathing room. His recognition as a help defender improved somewhat, although the growth wasn’t necessarily linear, showing more signs of improved cognition and awareness by intercepting passes or sending shots off the backboard, making the most of his length and athleticism. Although he wasn’t used as such, he does have some equity as a weak-side rim protector given the aforementioned physical and athletic traits, which would help him provide spot minutes (or more) as a small-ball power forward. (Granted, he’s more of a two-foot leaper that needs time to load up, but the vertical is nonetheless there.)

Little garnered fame for his prowess and power as a vertical athlete, and he put that on display for scouts in attendance at the NBA Draft Combine last month, sporting an impressive 38.5-inch max vert which ranked as one of the better leaps from the 60+ prospects in attendance. His bounce impacts his play on the court in a myriad of ways, too, benefitting his team and not merely being a flashy trait.

He grew as a rebounder playing for a notoriously-strong rebounding coach, improving his technique and routeinly out-working and out-jumping opponents to grab rebounds on both ends of the floor, particularly finding success on putbacks (1.238 PPP, 73rd percentile).

But he still unleashed his hops when necessary, not withholding any flash when granted an empty driving lane to the bucket. Little threw down 35 dunks as a freshman, tops on the team, unleashing rim-rocking two-handed slams in transition and finishing well as a lob threat, which he projects to still be once he’s in the NBA. He looks to be a fun partner for any ball-handler in transition, as he’ll either uncork a highlight-worthy dunk on a leakout or cut hard to the rack and throw down whatever the ball-handler throws up.

And, yes, he WILL try to dunk on you if you get in between him and the rim.

The dunks are nice, but he’s more than just a dunker when it comes to producing on offense. The 6-foot-6 above-the-rim forward was genuinely excellent at finishing around the rim, sporting a potent 68.3 FG% at the rim (roughly half of which was assisted on, which is a bit high for a wing but OK for a big) and getting shots to fall thanks to his strength to absorb contact, length to out-reach and evade contests, and legit touch to finish some pretty tough layup attempts. Be it a scoop, finger roll, or floater, right-handed or left-handed, Little managed to convert on his drives at a promising rate, making the most of his athleticism and touch.

Little still has to make major strides as an on-ball creator given how loose his dribble is and how stiff his body is (after bulking up so much in the prior offseason), as he’s more of a straight-line driver at the moment. THere were instances where he flashed some of the ball skills we saw from him at lower levels, blowing by slower-footed bigs and seemingly regaining some confidence in his side-to-side crossover later in the season against heightened competition, including one play (0:26 in the following clip) in which he completely dusted Chuma Okeke, one of the better defenders in the draft class.

When stepping out of the paint, his offensive production wasn’t as strong. Little only ranked in the 20th percentile shooting off the catch (25.8 FG%) and in the 30th percentile on dribble jumpers in the halfcourt (26.8 FG%), struggling to maintain rhythm and balance on his jump shots. For what it’s worth, though, it’s fairly reasonable to consider this season to be an aberration in terms of shooting considering what we’ve seen from him in the past. He wasn’t an excellent shooter in high school, but he came on strong as a senior, garnering immense praise and respect from scouts and recruiting specialists who viewed his mechanics as translatable to higher levels. He gets great lift on his shot, squares his hips well, and uses a “sweep and sway” motion to get extra arc on an otherwise flat arc. Of course, relying on a jump-heavy jumper requires consistency due to how energy is transferred; if he holds the ball too long, by even a split second, shots can go awry; likewise, if his base isn’t sturdy and prepped well, he won’t have the adequate flow to get shots to fall.

Form and mechanics are something he’ll have to polish with his trainers and coaches, but he’s got tools to work with. When his base is strong and his balance — both on spot-ups and fadeaways — emphasized, the results are fairly promising, even with the mix of makes and misses.

When factoring in his strong free throw numbers (77.0 FT% on solid volume) and his soft touch around the basket, along with the aforementioned mechanics, I’m not too worried about him failing as a shooter in the NBA. It may take him a few years to completely find comfort as a shooter and polish out some kinks, but we’ve seen enough to suggest that he’ll be OK in that department.

When not looking to score, Little was a bit hesitant as a passer, either not noticing open windows or failing to deliver timely passes. Tunnel vision was something he dealt with as well, as his decision-making and floor vision require patience and nurturing. Playing in the Carolina Break requires quick decisions and several reads all in quick succession, as it revolves around constant ball movement and off-ball activity in order to create mismatches and open looks from the perimeter and paint.

It’s not a particularly easy scheme to pick up on as a freshman, especially when you’re having to learn how to play Roy Williams’ idea of a ‘3’ and a ‘4,’ so it’s understandable that Little struggled early on. He was never a strong passer in high school either, but he did improve as a decision-maker and ball-mover later in the season, making some reads — simple and rudimentary ones, but they were the right ones to make and a change from what we’d previously seen — to kick the ball to open shooters and simply keep the ball from sticking in his hands for too long. He doesn’t have plus-vision as a passer due to his feel and vision, but he likely won’t be expected to manage such a role in the NBA, although it would certainly help his case if he improved there (I’m skeptical, but development can be surprising in some cases).

And, bottom line: Nassir Little, based on numerous reports and personal accounts and musings from those close to him, is an incredible human being. He’s a hard worker on and off the court and in multiple areas of his life, he handled his turbulent season with class and outright maturity (not blaming any party for the season that didn’t go as planned), he’s introspective and an ace in the classroom, he has a wonderful support system made of family and friends, and he’s been known as a delight to speak to, both by friends, staff, and media members.

He’s exactly the type of player — no, person — teams want to bet on, which is why so many teams are falling in love with him during the pre-draft process with private workouts and extensive interviews giving the NBA a closer, more intimate look at Nassir Little the prospect, the player, and the person. This stuff matters. Finding great people is incredibly important, yet still underrated when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. His struggles and shortcomings as a player — more on that in a moment — are real and palpable, but given his personal profile, it’s significantly easier to believe in his growth due to his mental makeup and a work ethic that has been lauded by many.

This isn’t to say that he’s a guarantee to squash all of the existing concerns and that he’ll be a surefire NBA player — there are still risks involved by selecting him, given the amount of work that needs to be done before he can contribute on an NBA court anytime soon, but he may be worth the risk. Believing in good people isn’t a bad bet to make, and Little is no exception.