Virginia Basketball: Keys for Cavaliers to become a contender in 2019-20
Mamadi Diakite
Diakite will forever be a Cavalier legend after his game-saving shot in the Elite 8 against Purdue. At 6-9, the senior offers length and versatility on the defensive end, ranking 24th nationally in block percentage last season.
His offensive skills still aren’t overly refined, however (7.4 ppg in 21.8 minutes last season). Diakite’s size/athleticism has made him a decent finisher around the basket (57.1 FG% inside arc), but his touch is questionable and he doesn’t offer much playmaking.
A lot of his buckets came as a diver to the basket off of screens. He has the skill and mobility to set an effective pick, roll quickly to the basket and finish with strength.
In terms of potential improvement, Diakite has showcased a mid-range jump shot that could become an asset if improved. He only went 5-17 from long-range last season, but perhaps he could unveil a 3-point shot? It’s also possible increased opportunities could provide Diakite the confidence to take his game to another level.
He’ll likely get some chances to attack in isolation like below. Tony Bennett will want to fully explore whether the “next step” is in the cards for Diakite offensively, because if the answer is yes, it could be a game changer.
In terms of forecasting, however, it seems unlikely he’ll elevate his scoring average too drastically. He’ll continue to be key defensively, and he’s unlikely to be asked to do too much more on offense.
Scoring average output lost: 47.9 points
Projected scoring boost by Diakite: 4.0 points
Updated total projected scoring boost: 4.0 points
Help fill 3-point void? Maybe, but probably no. He’s had no track record of 3-point shooting, and a decent mid-range jumper seems like a more realistic goal.
Braxton Key
Another player known for his defense, Key did all the “little things” as a role player last season, ranking 89th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and 99th in steal percentage.
He was limited offensively in his 19.8 minutes per game, however, averaging only 5.7 points and shooting 30.5% (18-59) from 3-point range. Some of the low scoring output was due to his role, however (4.5 shots per game), as Key has showcased more scoring ability in the past. Prior to transferring to Virginia, the 6-8 forward averaged 12.0 points his freshmen season at Alabama while attempting 9.4 shots per game.
Despite the limited production, Key showed flashes of a skilled offensive game last season. He’s capable of handling the ball a bit, but he’s better suited to making plays in the post or as a roll man in the pick-and-roll.
Based on his track record, the senior should be able to get the low double-digits in scoring average in an elevated role. The “key” for him will be if he can elevate his 3-point shooting a bit. He’s only shot 33.0%, 25.0% and 30.5% his three collegiate seasons, but he’s done this on a fair number of attempts. It wouldn’t be shocking if he got this percentage to 33-35% next season, and this would be more significant for Virginia than one might realize.
The Cavaliers’ projected starting lineup is Kihei Clark, Casey Morsell, Braxton Key, Mamadi Diakite and Jay Huff. Key would be playing the 3-position in this lineup, and if he can’t shoot from long-range, Virginia’s starting offense will be severely limited.
Overall, Key’s a better bet than Diakite to pick up the scoring load. It’s uncertain whether he will be given the offensive freedom he had at Alabama and whether he can figure out the 3-point shot.
Scoring average output lost: 48.0 points
Projected scoring boost by Key: 7.0 points
Updated total projected scoring boost: 11.0 points
Help fill 3-point void?: Yes. Key has shot sub-par percentages over his career but on a solid number of attempts. It seems reasonable to hope for a boost in efficiency.