NCAA Basketball: Highlights, surprises from 2019-20 preseason KenPom rankings
Who are the top teams in the KenPom rankings?
Below are the Top 10 teams in the KenPom preseason rankings.
- Michigan State
- Kentucky
- Louisville
- Duke
- Virginia
- North Carolina
- Purdue
- Villanova
- Gonzaga
- Kansas
There’s not much of a shock at the top, with Michigan State and Kentucky being tabbed as early front-runners to win the national championship in 2020. Other programs, notably Louisville, Duke, and North Carolina should not really be much of a surprise here. And Villanova, despite being picked to finish second in the Big East, doesn’t feel like a stretch, either.
While these are all certainly household names, there are a few surprises at the top. Virginia and Purdue both stand out, as each school lost significant pieces from the rosters that went toe-to-toe in last season’s Elite Eight classic. The Cavaliers will try to cope with the losses of Ty Jerome, De’Andre Hunter, and Kyle Guy, while the Boilermakers begin life after Carsen Edwards. But with very good coaches in Tony Bennett and Matt Painter, respectively, it’s reasonable to think that these teams will be able to run it back and put out quality teams once again.
They also each feature some very good returning players, as well as new faces that are sure to impress. However, neither team is a consensus Top 10 team, according to a cursory glance around the preseason polls. But they are set, it would seem, to perform well from a quantitative perspective.
Gonzaga is another team that might look a little high, compared to some of the polls that are coming out fast this time of year. Bear in mind that the KenPom rankings (and other analytics models) are not intended to match the national polls — in fact, their very existence is, in a way, a protest against the polls. The Zags spent the first three months of 2019 slicing through WCC opponents like a hot knife through butter. Because their margins of victory are often astronomical, Gonzaga is a darling of efficiency measurements.
Kansas, meanwhile, is perhaps a bit lower than expected. The Jayhawks, though, always play a tough schedule and generally find ways to win close games. Because they usually don’t blow teams out of the water like Gonzaga or smother opponents with stifling defense like Virginia, their efficiency numbers don’t jump off the page. So, while the Jayhawks are a near-lock to be a Top-5 team in the AP preseason poll that will be released Monday, their KenPom rating is relatively low.
Notably absent from the Top 10 are Florida and Texas Tech. The Gators are coming into the year with considerable hype, especially in the wake of luring Virginia Tech grad transfer Kerry Blackshear, Jr. to the program. Considered by many to be a national title contender, Florida is ranked a bit below what might be expected of them in the upcoming season. The Gators currently sit at #12 in the standings. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, don’t have the same level of buzz as Florida, but they are still a likely bet to debut in the AP Top 10. The reigning national runners-up are ranked #15 in the KenPom standings to start the year.
But there is plenty more that is interesting about these rankings outside of the top ten. Here’s a look at how the NCAA Tournament might shake out, based on the preseason KenPom figures.