NCAA Basketball: Highlights, surprises from 2019-20 preseason KenPom rankings
Based on the KenPom rankings, which teams will make the Big Dance?
KenPom does not provide bracketology predictions on the site, unlike others such as KPI, T-Rank, and Haslametrics. However, by looking at the rankings as they are right now, it’s possible to piece together a list of the top 68 teams. Here’s a breakdown of which teams would make the Big Dance if they were selected strictly using their KenPom ratings. This is merely one way to put these rankings into context.
1-Seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Louisville, Duke
2-Seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Purdue, Villanova
3-Seeds: Gonzaga, Kansas, Ohio State, Florida
4-Seeds: Baylor, Florida State, Texas Tech, Maryland
5-Seeds: Marquette, Xavier, Tennessee, Seton Hall
6-Seeds: Michigan, Auburn, VCU, Arizona
7-Seeds: Oklahoma, St. Mary’s, Cincinnati, NC State
8-Seeds: Houston, Oregon, Providence, Texas
9-Seeds: Butler, Indiana, Illinois, Creighton
10-Seeds: Colorado, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma State
11-Seeds: Iowa, New Mexico State, Penn State/Arkansas, Wisconsin/TCU
12-Seeds: Utah State, East Tennessee State, Harvard, Vermont
13-Seeds: Toledo, Belmont, Western Kentucky, Liberty
14-Seeds: Loyola Chicago, Wright State, UC Irvine, Colgate
15-Seeds: South Alabama, Hofstra, South Dakota, Radford
16-Seeds: Rider, Sam Houston St., Montana/Grambling, Sacred Heart/Morgan St.
A couple things stick out here. First, it’s very heavy on the high-major schools. Only four teams from outside of the country’s seven strongest conferences (the Power 5 plus Big East and AAC) are ranked above the at-large cutline: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, VCU, and New Mexico State.
And while it is no shock that those teams will be good this season, the rankings are particularly low on Utah State. The Aggies have garnered a lot of early praise heading into the season and are a popular preseason Top 20 pick. But if the field were based strictly on the KenPom rankings, they’d be in as an automatic qualifier and would get a 12-seed in the tournament. Other popular mid-major squads, such as Dayton and Davidson, would miss the tournament entirely.
As far as the power conferences go, the Pac-12 is the clear loser in these rankings. With the league coming off a very down year, it’s not a shock to only see three teams. The bigger surprise, perhaps, is which ones made the cut. At current, only three teams — Arizona, Oregon, and Colorado — are projected to be above the cutline. This leaves promising squads like Washington (another trendy Top 25 pick), Arizona State, and USC out of the picture.
Perhaps the biggest name left out of this projected field is Memphis. The Tigers have enormous buzz around their program after Penny Hardaway’s master class in recruiting this past offseason. Keep in mind, though, that projections for freshmen can be tough and there’s not much recent history to boost Memphis’ stock in the preseason calculations. So, while the early polls may have already fallen in love with guys like James Wiseman and Precious Achiuwa, the Tigers need to go out and prove it on the court.
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These rankings shouldn’t be taken as gospel, of course. No single ratings system should. Though this phrase is becoming trite and hackneyed in the analytics community, it is true that each model should simply be “a tool in the toolbox.” But these ratings do provide an interesting framework from which to start a conversation about which teams will be good and which might struggle.