Kansas Basketball: 3 keys to beat Duke in 2019 Champions Classic

2. Duke must prove that their three-point shooting has improved

One of the most-discussed storylines surrounding Duke last year—when folks weren’t gushing over Zion Williamson, of course—was the Blue Devils’ futility from beyond the arc. And it’s a well-founded argument. Duke shot a miserable 30.8% from downtown last year, good for 329th in the country, per Sports-Reference. During ACC play, that number fell to 29.6%. Their inability to consistently hit three-pointers was perhaps the biggest black eye for the Blue Devils all season long. And yet, it didn’t stop them from chucking them up. Their 903 attempts from long range was the 26th-most among Division I teams last year.

It’s not clear that things will get much better this season.

Tre Jones’ return to Durham was an unequivocal boon for Coach K, but more for his defense and leadership than for his offensive abilities. There’s no sugar-coating it—Jones was one of the worst shooters in the nation last year. Despite shooting at a 26.2% (!) clip, Jones still hoisted over a hundred three-pointers. It’s hard to believe that he won’t improve that number a bit, but he is doubtful to ever be a real threat from outside.

Other returning shooters include Alex O’Connell and Jack White. O’Connell was the team’s most effective three-point shooter a year ago, hitting 30 of his 80 deep shots for a 37.5% mark. He will reprise his role as a bench shooter for Krzyzewski this season. White was more disappointing, shooting just 27.8% from deep on the season. But those numbers were also anchored down by a twelve-game stretch in which he went 0-for-26 on three-point attempts. That’s simply an unacceptable performance from a player whose role is so heavily reliant on shooting—White’s 97 three-point attempts made up nearly three-quarters of his total shots.

All three of these players need to improve, but what about the new faces in Durham?

Freshman forward Matthew Hurt, one of Mike Krzyzewski’s heralded recruits, could be the best shooter on the team. If any Blue Devil is going to get hot from downtown, it will most likely be Hurt. But other freshmen like Cassius Stanley and Wendell Moore aren’t expected to be elite shooters from Day One. They are both highly skilled players in other facets of the game, to be sure, but neither carries a reputation for being sharpshooters.

This is a weakness that Kansas must exploit. Dotson and Agbaji need to keep the Blue Devils’ guards and wings in front of them. The Jayhawks’ big men also need to limit entries into the paint and punish Duke when they do attack the rim. By forcing the Blue Devils to rely on the three-point shot, Kansas will certainly increase its chances of securing the victory.

These first two points will be moot if the Jayhawks can’t hold onto the ball, though. It will be difficult to force Duke into shooting three-pointers if the Blue Devils are constantly getting possessions in transition from Kansas turnovers. So, ball security will be of the utmost importance for Kansas in this Champions Classic matchup.