NCAA Basketball: Dayton, Gonzaga and Loyola best “shot quality” teams

Five Teams With Biggest Disparity in Offensive eFG% and Shot Quality (high shot quality low eFG%)

Abilene Christian

Cornell

Virginia

Grambling State

New Orleans

These five teams are making WAY fewer shots than would be expected based on their shot quality rankings. Virginia, for instance, ranks 91st in ShotQ but a horrid 323rd in eFG%.

Much has been made of the woes of Virginia’s offense this season, and it has indeed been very ugly. It seems, however, that the team’s offensive scheme is working just fine. It’s still generating plenty of quality shots (56th last season), but the shots simply aren’t falling.

Why? As has been well documented, the Cavaliers have struggled to make up for the scoring abilities of Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy and DeAndre Hunter, all of whom left early for the NBA. Things might not turn around this season, but if Tony Bennett can get some new talent in the door, the existing scheme should enable the offense to turn around rather quickly.

While the Cavaliers have underperformed relative to their shot quality, some teams are shooting a lot better than their ranking would suggest.

Five Teams With Biggest Disparity in Offensive eFG% and Shot Quality (low in shot quality high in eFG%)

Marquette

Indiana

Miami

Georgia St

Northeastern

These five teams aren’t taking “high quality” shots, but they’re getting them to fall much more often than one would expect. Take Marquette as an example. The Markus Howard-led offense ranks only 320th in shot quality but 81st in eFG%.

What’s driving the poor shot quality? The Golden Eagles are attempting threes at the 44th-highest rate, so a lack of the long-ball can’t be the issue. Perhaps it’s not taking enough shots at the basket (which analytics “love”), where it ranks 304th nationally in attempt rate (per hoop-math). It’s also attempted a fair amount of mid-range shots (which analytics hate), ranking 180th in this category.

Likely the best explanation, however, is Markus Howard. The senior takes plenty of difficult shots, including a lot off-the-dribble mid-range and 3-point jumpers.

How does Marquette still rank 81st in eFG%? The answer is again, Markus Howard. As one of the best shooters in the sport, Howard can make these tough shots. He might be the best scorer in the country, but let’s just say he won’t be winning any awards for his shot quality.

There are a lot of ways to produce a winning basketball team, but having an offense that ranks highly in the ShotQ metric is likely a good place to start (e.g. Dayton). Of course, however, no offense can succeed without players that can actually hit these shots (e.g. Virginia).