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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Alabama, Syracuse rising into consideration

By Lukas Harkins

SYRACUSE, NY - NOVEMBER 06: Elijah Hughes #33 of the Syracuse Orange shoots the ball as Casey Morsell #13 of the Virginia Cavaliers defends during the second half at the Carrier Dome on November 6, 2019 in Syracuse, New York. Virginia defeated Syracuse 48-34. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)
SYRACUSE, NY - NOVEMBER 06: Elijah Hughes #33 of the Syracuse Orange shoots the ball as Casey Morsell #13 of the Virginia Cavaliers defends during the second half at the Carrier Dome on November 6, 2019 in Syracuse, New York. Virginia defeated Syracuse 48-34. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images) /
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ORLANDO, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 25: Coach Hardaway of Memphis reacts. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
ORLANDO, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 25: Coach Hardaway of Memphis reacts. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: None.

Safely in the field: Houston, Wichita State

Some perspiration: None.

Double the deodorant: Memphis, Cincinnati, Tulsa, SMU

Houston Cougars (16-4, 6-1 AAC)

NET: 36 | KPI: 27 | SOR: 30 | BPI: 25 | KP: 23 | Sag: 17

Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 4-0

Houston is in a good spot to dance in a couple of months. The Cougars have only suffered one “bad loss” and their metrics are strong pretty much across the board. They should easily be one of the top contenders for the AAC regular-season title over the coming months and they should remain a clear-cut NCAA Tournament team as a result. They can still boast two Q1 wins (at Wichita State, vs. Washington) but one of those could slip out in the coming weeks. Either way, though, Houston is a great offensive team that has won 10 of its last 11 games. It is showing no real signs of slowing down even with four of its next six games coming on the road. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 7 seed.

Wichita State Shockers (17-3, 5-2 AAC)

NET: 30 | KPI: 22 | SOR: 23 | BPI: 42 | KP: 40 | Sag: 35

Q1: 0-1 | Q2:  6-2 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 7-0

Wichita State dropped a bit in bracketology during the past two weeks as some of its previous Q1 games fell to Q2. With that said, though, Wichita State is still in pretty good shape to dance as it belongs safely in the field at this moment. The Shockers have only lost three games all year long and are able to consistently rely on their defense to get stops. There aren’t many opportunities for big-time wins in AAC play but road matchups against Tulsa, Houston, and Cincinnati still loom in the coming months. Wichita State should hear its name called on Selection Sunday but its seed will depend on if it can win a few of those games. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 8 seed.

Memphis Tigers (14-5, 3-3 AAC)

NET: 51 | KPI: 50 | SOR: 48 | BPI: 65 | KP: 60 | Sag: 51

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 5-0

Memphis is in a rough place right now. After starting the season at 12-1, the Tigers appeared to be in good shape for the NCAA Tournament even without James Wiseman. Yet, many were still skeptical of their potential considering their lack of high-quality wins in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Now that Memphis has dropped four of its last six games, that is starting to come back to bite them. The Tigers are only 3-4 in Q1+2 games and they will need to find a way to secure some big-time wins in the coming weeks. There are opportunities over the next two months, though, with both matchups against Houston left and a couple of others. Memphis is down, but not out. Current Bracketology Placement: First Four Out.

Cincinnati Bearcats (13-7, 6-2 AAC)

NET: 50 | KPI: 39 | SOR: 72 | BPI: 41 | KP: 42 | Sag: 36

Q1:  0-4 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3: 5-3 | Q4: 3-0

Cincinnati is quietly rising close to the projected field right now as it has found its rhythm since the beginning of conference play. The Bearcats have won five of their last six games with their lone loss coming on the road to Memphis during this stretch. They are definitely playing at a higher level as of late while rising up metric rankings but still have some work to do. Cincinnati will need to find a way to offset three Q3 losses and it currently does not boast a single Q1 win. I cannot understate how important these upcoming two weeks will be with Houston coming to town and then Cincinnati traveling to face Wichita State. Huge opportunities and the Bearcats need to take at least one. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (14-6, 6-1 AAC)

NET: 65 | KPI: 58 | SOR: 71 | BPI: 79 | KP: 65 | Sag: 67

Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 7-1 | Q4: 4-1

Tulsa has won five consecutive games and that includes a pair of home victories over Houston and Memphis. It is clear that the Golden Hurricane have hit a new stride in recent weeks and the team is playing itself onto the bubble. After sitting at a No. 119 on KenPom prior to the beginning of conference play, Tulsa now sits at No. 65 in that ranking system. Their defense has been particularly impressive during this stretch and the Golden Hurricane are definitely turning some heads and warranting attention from bracketologists. Considering their two bad losses and a lack of a Q1 win, Tulsa definitely still has work to do but it is trending in the right direction. Facing Wichita State at home this weekend is another opportunity for a solid win. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT.

SMU Mustangs (15-5, 5-3 AAC)

NET: 73 | KPI: 70 | SOR: 64 | BPI: 81 | KP: 75 | Sag: 70

Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 8-0

SMU was climbing into the bubble conversation after three straight wins over the past few weeks but recently got blown out by Cincinnati on the road. This isn’t a bubble-popping loss by any stretch but the performance wasn’t pretty. The Mustangs need to respond well with three of their next four games coming at home in order to remain around the bubble. They rank consistently below the average bubble team in metrics but are within striking range of making a run. SMU still has a game each against Houston and Wichita State. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT.

Lots of work to do: None.

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