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Bracketology 2020: Examining mid-major basketball at-large profiles

By Joe Weidenburner

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: The NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: The NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /
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DAYTON, OHIO – FEBRUARY 22: Obi Toppin #1 of the Dayton Flyers (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
DAYTON, OHIO – FEBRUARY 22: Obi Toppin #1 of the Dayton Flyers (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /

Dayton Flyers

29-2 | NET: 2 | KPI/SOR Avg: 4.5 | BPI/POM/SAG Avg: 5

One of the most pleasantly surprising teams of this college hoops season, Anthony Grant’s Flyers were expected to be good-not-great. As we enter Championship Week, this team truly has been great. Dayton gives new meaning to its nickname every time Obi Toppin takes off for a highlight-reel dunk, and this is one of the best offenses college basketball has seen. Not only has this been a special season on the court for Dayton, but also off the court.

Dayton is undefeated within Quads 2, 3, and 4, compiling an impressive 24-0 record. Its 13-2 record in Quads 1 and 2 is very good, and the resume is further bolstered by a 12-2 mark in road and neutral contests, one of the nuanced analytical measures favored by the NCAA Selection Committee. The only blemishes on this record are neutral-site losses to consensus #1 overall seed Kansas and top-25 NET-ranked Colorado.

Detractors lament the lack of a truly resume-defining win, as its best win analytically is a road win at Bubble-team Richmond, and for a while that kept Dayton’s ceiling at a 2-seed prior to San Diego St. losing again. But the Aztec loss to Utah St. in the Mountain West tournament final opened the door to a 1-seed, a door that will not close unless Dayton loses early in the A-10 Tournament and a team like Florida St., Creighton, or Villanova obliterates all opposition in their respective conference tournaments.

Whether 1-seed or 2-seed, it’s been a tremendous season for Dayton and they will be a dangerous squad come the NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology Prediction: 1-seed, East Region

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