NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions
South Region (bottom-half)
(6) Virginia vs. (3) Maryland
Biggest keys
Jason Burgess
This is an intriguing game, with the defending champ and nation’s No. 1 defense taking on one of the best rebounding teams in the country, the Maryland Terrapins. Points will definitely be at a premium in this game, I don’t expect either team to crack 70. Because there is likely to be a lot of missed shots in this game, rebounding will be a big key, and that is a category where Maryland has a big advantage, ranking in the top-75 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The three-point shot is not a big part of Virginia’s arsenal, so Maryland’s interior defense will be another key in this game. The Terrapins rank 22nd in the country, allowing opponents to shoot 44% on two-point shots.
I would expect Maryland to pack their defense in the lane and dare Virginia to make jump shots. A big key for Virginia will be their ability to contain Jalen Smith, in that vein, Jay Huff and Mamadi Diakite will have to make Smith work defensively, trying to get him into foul trouble because 6’7 Donta Scott is the only other player with size that averages meaningful minutes for Maryland.
Timmy Miller
1. What kind of game does Anthony Cowen Jr. have?
Maryland went a perfect 9-0 when the first team all big-ten point guard scored 20 points or more. But, Virginia specialized in making things difficult for opposing perimeter players. Would Cowen Jr. be able to maneuver his way through UVA’s pack-line D or would he have to settle for contested three-point shots?
2. Virginia’s experience down the stretch.
The majority of UVA’s roster gained valuable NCAA Tournament experience last season. For the newcomers, the last couple weeks of the season provided a crazy amount of high-pressure moments. Tony Bennett’s squad closed ACC play with an eight-game win streak, with seven of those coming by one possession or less. If this one comes down to the wire (which seems likely), I like UVA’s chances.
3. Maryland earning “easy” points.
There’s no such thing as scoring easy points on Virginia. But if the Terps can get to the free throw line with some frequency, as they did in Big Ten play, then it takes the pressure off Cowen Jr. to do too much. Also, finding a few buckets for Jalen Smith via transition or offensive rebounds would be nice.
Erik Mauro
Virginia:
– control the pace. We know the Hoos like to control the pace of their games and break the will of other teams, and that will be no different here. That’s how they win, and it takes other teams out of their comfort zone.
– Force turnovers. Maryland is top 40 in the nation in fewest turnovers committed. They possess the ball and don’t give many possessions away. It’ll be up to UVA’s stifling defense to set the pace and force the Terps into uncomfortable situations.
– Get to the line. Maryland, much not like the Cavaliers, does not foul much. The Terps are top 25 nationally in fewest fouls, and if the Cavs can earn some free points at the line, they should have a good chance at winning this one.
Maryland
– Get to the line. Virginia fouls even less than Maryland. The Hoos tied for the fewest fouls in the nation. The Terrapins will need to find a way to get around the stifling defense of UVA and earn points a different way.
– Make your shots. Simple, right? Maybe not. Virginia is second in the nation in opposing field goal percentage, allowing teams to hit just 37 percent of shots from the floor. It’s clear by now that Virginia relies on its defense. Making shots is the best way around it, and if Maryland does that, the Cavaliers may not be able to keep up.
– Stick with what you know. Tony Bennett’s group specializes in getting the team’s out of their comfort zone and making them change their gameplans after getting uncomfortable. The Terrapins need to stick with what they know, and that’s using Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith. Those two have got them to the Round of 32, why change now?
Game predictions
John Vaccaro
Maryland vs Virginia prediction
I don’t think there is any team in college basketball that is more predictable than Virginia right now. We know that it is very unlikely that their offense is going to explode in any given game, but we also know that their defense is going to lock down just about any team they take on. That is not something that can be said about Maryland. In fact, not only were they regularly a different team from game to game this season, they were a different team from half to half.
Maryland is built similarly to Virginia. They rely more on their defense to win games than their offense, but to a lesser extent than Virginia. If Maryland’s offense gets hot in his game and their defense shows up right from the start, then there’s no reason to believe they won’t win this game. Unfortunately, I just don’t think that’s something we can rely on with them playing outside their home state.
I believe that this should be a very close matchup and honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see either team win. However, the difference to me is that I know what I’m getting out of Virginia every time they step on the floor. The fact that they are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now also doesn’t hurt their cause. The Cavalier defense comes up big and grinds out a very close win.
Virginia 54, Maryland 50
Sydney Chesser
Maryland started the season strong and ended up with a share of the Big 10 title, even after going on a two-game losing streak towards the end of the season. Virginia completed a successful end of the season run that helped them secure a share of second place in the ACC.
Expect a defensive battle, as both teams are known for their elite defense and shot-blocking. Jalen Smith and Kihei Clark will be huge difference makers with their ability to step up both offensively and defensively. Virginia has continued to gain momentum while entering March. They have improved tremendously throughout the regular season and have a winning record in games decided by three points or less. I predict a close scoring game with Virginia using their momentum to upset Maryland.
Virginia 78, Maryland 75
Tristan Freeman
Maryland has one of the best 1-2 punches in the country in Jalen Smith and Anthony Cowan and they’re good enough to beat most teams. However, the Terps only plays really a six-man rotation and can be easy to scout for an expert like Tony Bennett of Virginia. I can see the Cavaliers finding a way to slow both players down just enough to slide by with a close, low-scoring win.
Virginia 56, Maryland 52
Virginia gets the 3-0 sweep
(7) Houston vs. (2) Creighton
Biggest keys
Adam Childs
Creighton has been one of the hottest teams in the country to end the season, but they are not very big and rely on the outside shot. Can they hit their shots and stay hot? Houston doesn’t score a lot of points only averaging 72 a game, can they slow down Creighton enough to stay in the game? The Cougars have struggled lately alternating wins and losses in their last eight games of the regular season. Are they able to put two good games in a row to make it to the Sweet 16?
Jason Belt
1. If Creighton wants to be victorious against Houston, they will need to rely on their role players to step up. With Marcus Zegarowski out with a knee injury he suffered on March 7 and is out for 3-4 months, it will be up to his teammates to shoulder the load against Houston. Guys like Ty-Shon Alexander and Denzel Mahoney will have to step up big time for the Blue Jays to advance.
2. A big key for Houston will be the play of their freshman guard Caleb Mills. The sixth-man stud for the Cougars will have to be at his best if Houston wants to advance. He comes off the bench and provides a spark for their offense and could be a difference-maker in this one. If he can get into double figures in the scoring column, the Cougars have a good shot to move on.
3. The team that can seize the moment and the energy from the crowd will be the one who will move on. Utilizing the intensity of the crowd is a huge key to winning games in March. Whether it be mounting a large comeback or making a highlight play, the team that plays towards the crowd will have a good chance to come out victorious. Even if the crowd isn’t affiliated with any team, in March none of that matters. Fans love to see good basketball no matter who is playing. The team that can utilize that the best will come out on top.
Cody Gerena
Key 1: Creighton’s Three-Point Game
Creighton is in the top-25 for both three-point attempts and makes, shooting .386 and making over 9.7 threes per game. In games where they make less than 7 threes or shoot less than .280 they are winless going 0-5. Houston, on the other hand, is good at three-point defense, even being in the top-10 for opponent percentage at .286. Houston will need to shut down the Blue Jay offense as they are 13-3 when holding teams under .280 and 7-4 when they shoot above .300 where Creighton has gone 23-2.
Key 2: Field Goal percentage
The Cougars may be one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking in the top-10 for categories such as opponent field goal, field goal percentage, two-pointers, and 3-point percentage among being in the top-50 for numerous other defensive stats but when that defense isn’t working, the wins aren’t coming. Houston is 4-7 when giving up more than .400 of their opponents’ field goals. When Creighton shoots below .431 they are 2-7.
Key 3: Assists
Both teams possess losing records when having a poor night of assists. When the Blue Jays have less than 11 assists, they go 1-4. When the Cougars get less than 11 assists in a game, then they go 5-6.
Game Predictions
Jack Bennett
This may be one of the most interesting games to watch in the tournament. Both of these teams overachieved this year mostly due to multiple contributors and very well-rounded teams. The Blue Jays need to continue to share the basketball as much as they did through the regular season as this led them to a top-20 ranking nationally in assists per game. Houston must get a good game from Kansas transfer Quentin Grimes in order to take the full burden off of leading scorer Caleb Mills. Houston is the better rebounding team, and in the end, I think that will help the Cougars pull off the upset.
Houston 79, Creighton 72
Collin Helwig
In a battle that sees Houston’s astute defense (11th in RPG and 12th in OPG) face off against Creighton’s top 30 scoring and passing offense (78.3 PPG and 15.8 APG), whichever team dictates this game’s flow will take this one. Although Creighton might wield more firepower, for this rare occasion, the upset pick seems like the safer pick. Especially with Creighton’s leading scorer, Ty-Shon Alexander, seeing his scoring output gradually decline over his last 5 games, I frankly trust Houston’s top tier rebounding to a further degree.
Houston 64, Creighton 55
Tristan Freeman
This is a good matchup for both teams, as neither have really much size in their respective rotations. In that case, the advantage goes to Houston as their top-rated defense can deal with Creighton much easier than against bigger foes. The Bluejays likes to create mismatches on offense and use a barrage of three-pointers to win games but I have a feeling that the Cougars won’t let that happen.