NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions
Midwest Region (bottom-half)
(6) Penn State vs. (3) Duke
Biggest keys
Michael Walton
1. The battle in the trenches
The battle in the paint (“the trenches”) will be huge in this one. Duke big man Vernon Carey Jr. is dominant inside and it would be up to Penn State shot-blocker Mike Watkins (4.2 blocks per 40 minutes) to help slow him down. The Nittany Lions’ attention to detail would come into focus in this one, as the Blue Devils can generate easy offense inside.
2. The Blue Devils’ perimeter defense
Duke’s defense was solid overall on the season but looked absolutely terrible in certain matchups, especially against guards who can score in bunches like Penn State’s Myreon Jones (26 points per 100 possessions). The Blue Devils would have to prove that over a full 40 minutes they can stay attached to shooters coming off of screens and run the Nittany Lions off the 3-point line.
3. Who wins at the charity stripe?
Duke is far ahead of Penn State in terms of generating free throws but both squads are average in terms of their free throw percentage. In a game that will surely be close, the team that is able to hit around 73% of their free throws will prevail.
David Ackert
1. The first key to this Second Round match-up will fall on the defensive glass. Both of these teams rank outside the top-150 schools in DI in Defensive Rebounding. Whoever can crash the boards on this night should find an edge in the game. Duke might have the advantage here as they do rank 17th in Offensive Rebounding.
2. Live and die by the 3, the Duke way. Someone besides Myreon Jones needs to help make 3’s for Penn State while Duke ultimately has 4 guys to count on from deep.
3. Steals. Duke’s ability to get steals from Wisconsin’s offense should have a real impact in this one.
Connor Hope
1) Penn State must take advantage when Duke plays “down” to their level.
While Penn State is not bad by any stretch of the imagination, they clearly have the inferior talent pool when compared to Duke. With that say, the Blue Devils have been known to play down to the level of competition for long stretches in games, particularly on the wings. If guys like Izaiah Brockington can come off the bench and take advantage of Duke’s lack of solid depth on the wing, the Nittany Lions should be in a good spot.
2) Duke needs to contain Lamar Stevens
With Matthew Hurt providing the positional matchup to Lamar Stevens, head coach Mike Krzyzewski will need to figure out how to prevent the Nittany Lion forward from going off. Whether that means using Wendell Moore to provide help, rotating Javin DeLaurier in for increased minutes, or switching Vernon Carey onto Stevens in the paint, something will need to be done.
3) Both teams must finish possessions with shots
Both Penn State and Duke have forced a lot of turnovers and blocked a ton of shots this season. Because of this, it puts pressure on the offense to play smart basketball, make clean passes and take smart shots. This game could be decided by whichever team has the most shot attempts.
Game predictions
Austin Walther
I think Penn State can play Duke really close. Duke doesn’t have a player averaging over two three-pointers per game. Penn State has Myles Dread and Myreon Jones. Obviously, Penn State doesn’t have a point guard on the same level as Tre Jones and as good as Mike Watkins is, he’s no Vernon Carey. But the Nittany Lions have Lamar Stevens. A guy that can do a little bit of everything. One of the best players in Penn State history. Jamari Wheeler and Tre Jones have similar steal numbers and Mike Watkins is a better shot-blocker than Carey. Duke commits more turnovers, but they’re a better free throw shooting team. Vernon Carey could foul out in which Duke is 2-2 when he does and Penn State pulls the upset.
Penn State 67, Duke 64
Ben Andreatta
I don’t trust Pat Chambers. Lamar Stevens is going to need a big-time game for Penn State to have a chance but I think Duke’s offensive weapons will make it too difficult for Penn State to keep the pace. For Penn State, they need to guard the three-point line well, in Duke’s losses that have been a big standout. Penn State had lost five of their last six heading into the Big Ten Tournament before their round of 64 win, I don’t think they get by Duke.
66 Penn State, 78 Duke
Herbert Seward
This game is a lot more even on paper (and by eye test standards) than the seed difference suggests. In fact, an argument could be made for the Nittany Lions being a bit under-seeded, despite their semi-swoon late in the season. Mike Watkins and Vernon Carey are two of the better big men in the country. They’re both scoring and defensive factors on the block, which puts the Blue Devils at a distinct disadvantage in terms of offensive output in the halfcourt. Wendell Moore Jr. and Cassius Stanley have had their moments throughout the season, but their Jekyll-and-hyde tendencies show up in this game in a big way.
Lamar Stevens scores 29 points and finally gets scoring help from Sophomores Myles Dread and Myreon Jones, with 18 and 22 points respectively. Curtis Jones Jr. chips in 18 off the bench, almost outscoring the entire Duke bench rotation single-handedly. Tre Jones has a career-high 35 points and Vernon Carey wins his match-up with Watkins, but the supporting cast doesn’t offer too much else. A late dagger 3-ball from Myles Dread with 1.7 seconds left in the game seals the deal for the mild upset.
Penn State 76, Duke 73
Penn State gets the big 2-1 win to move on
(7) Illinois vs. (2) Villanova
Biggest keys
Connor Gluck
1. Kofi Cockburn
Villanova doesn’t have anyone anywhere near the size of the 7-foot 290 lbs. Kofi Cockburn, no one really does, so Illinois should look to exploit that as much as possible. The big man put up 13.3 ppg and 8.8 rpg in the league with the best big men in the nation, so he should be able to dominate down low against Villanova, who’s the biggest starter is the very talented, 6-9 232 lbs. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Look for Villanova to try to draw as many fouls on Cockburn as possible to try to keep him on the pinewood as much as possible to avoid the damage he can do.
2. Three-point Shooting
These two teams are on wildly different ends of the spectrum when it comes to shooting from deep. The Wildcats shoot 36% from long range compared to 31% for the Illini and attempted 288 more shots from behind the arc this season than their opponents. While Illinois will look to push the ball inside and get easy buckets, the Wildcats will like to speed up the game and take a lot of shots from three. To their credit, Illinois does have several players capable of getting hot from deep, but if it comes to a battle from long-range Villanova will more than likely win.
3. Offensive Rebounding
As different as these teams are in three-point shooting, they are just as different in rebounding, especially on the offensive glass. As I mentioned before, Kofi Cockburn is an absolute monster down-low and has helped lead the Illini to be the 20th best team in the nation in terms of offensive rebounds, while the Villanova Wildcats are well below average at 273rd in the nation. These second-chance points will be key to the Illini if they aren’t able to make as many three-pointers as their opponent. Villanova will need to focus on boxing out their man and maybe draw a few loose-ball fouls on the sometimes over-aggressive Illinois squad.
Jake Matteson
1) The Dock of The Bey: From off the radar to potential 1st Round pick, Saddiq Bey is everything and more for Villanova. Netting 16.1 points per outing and shooting 45% from deep, Bey is one of the best players in the country and here’s his chance to prove it.
2) Swiss Army Knife: The Villanova Wildcats have five players posting 10+ PPG. All five of said players shoot over 40% from the floor. With such a balanced attack, Villanova forces you to choose who you’re going to allow to go off.
3) Youth Movement: Illinois leans heavily on Sophomore Ayo Dosunmu and Freshman Kofi Cockburn. A combined 29.9 PPG, 13.4 RPG, and 3.9 APG the Illini have a legit chance to secure the upset if these two stars find their groove.
Joey Loose
1. Will the Illini have the ability to run their offense through Kofi Cockburn or can the Wildcats limit him from creating second-chance opportunities and penetrating the lane?
2. What answer does the Illini defense have for Villanova’s outside shooting game, which has been streaky especially in Big East play?
3. How does an Illinois team new to the Tournament fare when Villanova (a much more experienced postseason unit) goes on one of their runs?
Game predictions
Adam Childs
Villanova has been playing well coming into the tournament winnings seven of eight, but really only have one really good win during that time when they beat Seton Hall. They lost to Providence and barely slipped by Georgetown. Their defense has stepped up in those games and helped offset the fact that they do not score a lot of points. That is not a good thing when playing Illinois.
The Fighting Illini had one of the best defenses in the Big Ten and with Kofi Cockburn patrolling the inside it is tough for any team to get points in the paint. On the flip side, Cockburn is tough on the offensive end and he is three inches taller than anyone on the Wildcat roster. That spells trouble for Villanova. Combine that with Ayo Dosunmu’s ability to score from anywhere on the court and this is not a great matchup for Villanova.
If Saddiq Bey can get home from the outside for the Wildcats they have a shot, but the Illini have the ability to shut him down. This will be a low scoring game but the size of Cockburn will be the difference. The Illini pull off the “upset” and advance to the Sweet 16.
Illinois 68, Villanova 61
Brian Rauf
This is a fun, up-tempo, perimeter-oriented game that would be a ton of fun. Villanova’s shooters against Illinois’ pressure defense is one of those strength on strength matchups we love to see every March. However, in this game, I trust defense over shooting, and when you add in the advantage Illinois will have on the inside with Kofi Cockburn, I think the Illini hang on to pull off the upset.
Illinois 75, Villanova 70
Connor Hope
Villanova has been the silent assassin this season, coming back from a rough start to the season to beat Kansas and take the two seed in both the Big East Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. Behind Saddiq Bey and Collin Gillespie, the Wildcats have one of the best six-man rotations in the country. Illinois, on the other hand, has been up and down all season relying heavily on the contributions of Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu. Their depth of scoring has been slightly more reliable than Villanova’s, but it is their ability to slow the game down that has them in the Round of 32.
The Wildcats do not have a player on their roster that matches up well in the paint with Cockburn, but their length and athleticism throughout their rotation should give Illinois issues. Look for Jay Wright to draw up a gameplan that spreads the ball out to try and draw Cockburn away from the basket. The Wildcats should win this game, but Cockburn could score 30 in the loss.