NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament national title predictions
John Vaccaro – @captainWOP
Unsurprisingly, the two teams in our final also happen to have been two of the top four teams in the country for most of the season and the top 2 in the final AP poll. However, the teams reached this point in very different ways.
Gonzaga ran through their schedule with a fast-paced offense that overpowered opponent after opponent. Kansas found their success with a stifling defense that controlled every game they played. This championship matchup is going to come down to who can impose their style on this game.
It’s been rare for us to see either of these teams faced with an opponent who could take them out of their comfort zone. The WCC provided Gonzaga with a lot of opponents who played at a high pace and wanted to get into a shootout against them (which didn’t turn out too well for anybody but BYU). The Big 12 completely made up for all of the defense they don’t play during football season with quite a few standout teams on that end of the floor. It leaves us without recent examples to understand how either of these teams will approach this matchup.
That just leaves us with the numbers to look at. Gonzaga’s offensive numbers are incredible. They’re the nation’s highest-scoring team, 2nd in 2 point field goal percentage, and 7th in 3 point percentage. Kansas should be able to negate a lot of that on the defensive end where they allow the country’s 6th least points, 3rd lowest 2 point percentage, and 42nd lowest 3 point percentage. Gonzaga also attempts the 10th most free throws per game in the country, but Kansas allows the 10th least.
It’s each teams’ weaker end of the floor where the advantage becomes apparent in this matchup. Kansas is still strong even on their weaker side. Their 54.9% shooting inside the arc is 14th best in the country and they shoot a respectable 34.1% from 3, which is a little bit above the national average. On the other hand, Gonzaga’s defense only ranks 90th in 2 point percentage and 108th against the 3. With the rebounding and turnover battles likely to come out around even, that slight edge for Kansas should make a big difference.
There is also one more factor that makes me lean toward Kansas here. Whenever I’m faced with a close matchup like this, I tend to look at which team has the best player on the floor. In this case, Kansas actually has the top two players in the matchup. Whether you believe Udoka Azubuike or Devon Dotson is the star of the show for Kansas, the two of them give Kansas obvious options when they need big buckets late in this game.
Gonzaga doesn’t have that, instead choosing to spread their scoring around. That is an approach that has worked well for them, but it could be problematic as they try to break down a stout Kansas defense late in the game.
Dotson and Marcus Garrett, the country’s Defensive Player of the Year, should make life very difficult for Ryan Woolridge, Joel Ayayi, and Admon Gilder. Azubuike’s presence should also make it difficult for Gonzaga to score even when they are able to get the ball into the lane or down on the block, but I see no reason to believe the same will be true on the other end. Dotson will get to the basket regularly and open this game up for his teammates, especially Azubuike. They’ll get enough help from Garret, Ochai Agbaji, and Isaiah Moss to hold off the Bulldogs.
This one should be close throughout, but I feel pretty confident that the Jayhawks would bring home their first national title since Mario Chalmers led them to glory in 2008.