Big East Basketball: Way-too-early conference power rankings for 2020-21

2. Creighton Bluejays

2019-20: 24-7 (13-5), t-1st in Big East
Key Departures: G Ty-Shon Alexander*, G Davion Mintz, C Kelvin Jones
Incoming Freshmen: C Ryan Kalkbrenner
Incoming Transfers: Alex O’Connell (Duke – sit-out)

Headline: How does Creighton replace TSA, particularly on defense?

Star Watch: Marcus Zegarowski
Who makes The Leap: Mitch Ballock
X-Factor: Denzel Mahoney

At the start of the offseason, Creighton was bringing every key member of a Big East championship roster back to Omaha. A month later, the Bluejays are left a little shellshocked after two-way star Alexander has seemingly entered the draft for good, and Mintz, a sturdy perimeter presence, transferred to Kentucky for his final season after missing 2019-20 with injury. (Alexander left the door open for a return to CU, but his announcement post certainly sounded like a goodbye, even though most prognosticators rank him as a late second-round selection, at best.)

Without Alexander, the ceiling on this Creighton team is lowered somewhat, though the returning group should still be in the running for a protected NCAA tournament seed. Zegarowski is one of the most satisfying players to watch in the Big East. He controls the Jays’ offense like a puppeteer and understands when to hunt his own shot, when to turn on the jets, and when to let one of his teammates cook.

Three Big Easters have averaged 16 ppg and 5 apg on over 40 percent three-point shooting since Sports Reference began tracking such data in 1992-93: Notre Dame senior Chris Quinn, UConn senior Doron Sheffer, and Creighton’s Zegarowski. Nationally, he is only the fourth high-major sophomore to accomplish such a feat (Duke’s Jay Williams, Penn State’s Tony Carr, and Georgia Tech’s Travis Best). Zegarowski is the early favorite for Big East Player of the Year, and even without TSA, is capable of powering the Bluejays to another conference championship.

Rounding out the rest of the offensive core is a bevy of capable scorers: Mahoney, Damien Jefferson, and Ballock. Will Ballock finally assume more of a scoring load? The rising junior is a prolific shooter – career 40 percent mark from three on nearly six attempts per game – but has seen his usage rate decline with each year, cratering at 14.8 percent in 2019-20. Every opponent is scared when Ballock touches the ball, and breathes a sigh of relief when he passes up even a semi-open look. I understand Creighton has built an equal-opportunity offensive system and used it to great success, but it is heresy for one of the game’s best shooters to go through such mystifying spells of shyness. Ballock should be taking close to 10 threes per game; perhaps some of Alexander’s shots will head his way in 2020-21.

Offense should not be the problem, regardless of if Ballock takes on more responsibility. There are some question marks defensively, though, sans Alexander and Mintz. TSA was a vicious defender, and absolutely locked down Markus Howard and Myles Powell in his biggest assignments of the season. But Creighton still finished as just the 67th-best defense, per T-Rank, even with Alexander in the fold. Any slippage on that end will be significant; from 2008-19, only 14 teams with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating outside of the top-75 advanced to the Sweet 16.