Big East Basketball: Way-too-early conference power rankings for 2020-21

1. Villanova Wildcats

2019-20: 24-7 (13-5), t-1st in Big East
Key Departures: F Saddiq Bey*
Incoming Freshmen: Eric Dixon (RS)
Incoming Transfers: G Caleb Daniels (Tulane)

Headline: Can the ‘Nova train keep rolling, even without Saddiq Bey?

Star Watch: Collin Gillespie
Who makes The Leap: Justin Moore
X-Factor: Jermaine Samuels

Villanova has grabbed at least a share of the Big East title in six of the last seven seasons, and is the early favorite to do so once again in 2020-21, despite its top player likely moving onto the NBA. Bey has left the door open to return to VU, but that likelihood continues to decrease as more and more prognosticators slot him into the top 20 of their mock drafts.

Still, the Wildcats appear atop these rankings because Jay Wright has built a stable of all-conference players, featuring Gillespie, Moore, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Gillespie – just like the VU point guards before him – has complete control of the offense. He certainly doesn’t stand out athletically, and his stats (15.1 ppg and 4.5 apg) are merely good, not great, but he doesn’t make mistakes and always seems to create the winning play in crunch time.

Villanova doesn’t need Gillespie to be an athletic force though, because his backcourt mate Moore seems poised to make the sophomore leap. Moore already has a deep bag of offensive tricks: shooting from the outside, scoring off the dribble drive, owning smaller defenders into the post. His performance was a bit up and down as a freshman, but he finished the year with some momentum, averaging 14.7 ppg on 44 percent three-point shooting over Nova’s final six games.

Flying under the radar is Robinson-Earl. Plenty of talent has cycled through Villanova’s campus over the years, but only three freshmen have ever topped at least 32 minutes per game for Wright: Mike Nardi, a four-year starter and current VU assistant coach, Ryan Arcidiacono, the Wildcats’ all-time leader in career starts, and Robinson-Earl. It’s exceedingly rare for a freshman big man, even one with a five-star pedigree, to be ready to go immediately, but that’s the kind of skill and consistency JRE brings to the table.

The final piece to his game is trusting his three-point stroke, as opponents gave him more and more cushion throughout the year. He seemingly only took threes when the shot clock was expiring or out of guilt when the defense had strayed so far away. Robinson-Earl doesn’t have a bad shot – he was 81 percent from the line and 33 percent from three – but he seemed to waffle between letting it fly vs. playing inside his role. Here’s betting he strikes a better balance as a sophomore and attempts upwards of four threes per game.

Several former elite prospects ready to make their mark lurk behind the big three of Gillespie, Moore, and Robinson-Earl. Bryan Antoine never found his footing after an offseason shoulder injury set him back last year, but he was just as well-regarded as JRE out of high school and possesses great length and athleticism for a guard. Cole Swider showed flashes of his top-50 high school status as a sophomore and averaged nearly 10 ppg during Villanova’s first 13 contests before his production fell off dramatically in the second half of the season. He has the size and shooting touch to be a big-time scorer off the bench. Eric Dixon, another top-100 recruit, is eligible after his redshirt season.

Wright has built an unrelenting machine at Villanova, and with an impressive mix of veteran savvy and high-upside youth returning to campus, there is no reason to believe the ‘Cats will be dethroned anytime soon.

Offseason Power Rankings are an incredibly inexact science, and are best used as an early measuring stick. Really, the conference should be broken down into 4.5 tiers:

• Tier 1: Villanova, Creighton
• Tier 2A: Seton Hall, UConn
• Tier 2B: Providence, Xavier, Marquette, St. John’s
• Tier 3: Butler, Georgetown
• Tier 4: DePaul

There is a gulf between the top two teams and the rest of the conference, but I believe those middle six programs are all packed pretty tightly, with the Tier 3 schools not far behind.