Michigan Basketball: Franz Wagner a breakout candidate in 2020-21

Shooting potential

Despite standing at (around) 6-foot-9 and being mostly lining up at the forward spots, Wagner’s game better resembles one of a shooting guard. The basis of that resemblance is in his ability to shoot the basketball. He made 31.1 percent of his 3-pointers last season and shot 4.9 of them a game (his focus there becomes clear when compared to his 4.4 2-point attempts per game).

According to Synergy Sports, 34.2 percent of Wagner’s offense came from spot-up shot attempts. Disregarding transition offense, his next biggest role is as a cutter (which will be discussed later) which only took up 8.1 percent of his role at Michigan last year. To further illustrate what kind of scorer he is, 80.2 percent of his spot-ups come with zero dribbles.

Wagner is strictly a catch-and-shooter in terms of scoring from his jumper. He can hit the simple one-dribble jumper following a pump fake but struggles to do much of anything out of pull-up or step-back situations. To emphasize, Synergy recorded him attempting only 12 off-the-dribble jumpers last season; he only made 3 of them. Instead, most of his 3-pointers looked more like these (which by the way, are comparatively effective to off-the-bounce jump shots):

Wagner’s combination of a forward’s height and a guard’s quick release makes him a tough cover when he’s camping on the perimeter. Even taller defenders struggle to closeout on him in time to disrupt his shot; his ability to confidently pull the trigger without any hesitation makes this the case; as does his sneaky ability to get open without the ball in his hands.

Wagner was considerably open (according to Synergy Sports) on almost 60 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers this season. A lot of this is because of (minus defenders trailing off him at times to focus on the likes of Jon Teske and Zavier Simpson) his elite offensive court positioning.

Whether if he is running the span of the entire court around screens (and also setting some screens of his own) or just slightly adjusting his spot on the wing when his defender loses focus, he always manages to create the best look for himself — no ball-handling required. He doesn’t need to dribble to get open at a high rate, and when/if his shot starts falling more, the Big Ten conference could have a serious problem on their hands.

Again, only 31.1 percent of the forward’s threes went in last season (a solid, but not stellar percentage) and he only had a 29.3 percent success rate on his high-frequency catch-and-shoot jumpers. But with another year under his belt to develop, that could improve (especially considering that his form is crisp). One could also reference his time in Germany, at Alba Berlin, as another promising sign; where during his last two seasons, he made 38.1 percent of his 155 3-pointers.

Increasing his efficiency off-the-catch will be key for Wagner next season if he wants to take the next step on the trail his older brother left behind. All signs point to that happening, but even if it doesn’t, he still has other tricks to bring to the table, such as his role as a cutter/slasher.