Big East Basketball: 19 Player of the Year candidates for 2020-21 season
By Brian Foley
Breakout Candidates
G Justin Moore, Villanova
2019-20: 11.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 42/40/71 percent shooting
Moore was a bit up and down in 2019-20 but still did enough during the totality of the campaign to post one of the most productive freshmen stat lines of the Jay Wright era.
Take a look at the swinging pendulum that was Moore’s scoring output:
- Games 1-4: 11.8 ppg
- Games 5-6: 3.5 ppg
- Games 7-13: 15.3 ppg
- Games 14-17: 4.8 ppg
- Games 18-21: 13.3 ppg
- Games 22-25: 7.5 ppg
- Games 26-31: 14.7 ppg
The former four-star recruit looks like a natural fit to take over the scoring load left by Saddiq Bey, and if he can hold onto those positive up-ticks in production for longer stretches, Moore may be neck-and-neck with teammate Gillespie in the POY race.
F Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Villanova
2019-20: 10.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, 45/33/81 percent shooting
Unsurprisingly, another young ‘Cat lands on this list. Robinson-Earl was similarly productive to his perimeter counterpart Moore, but without the nauseating highs and lows. On most nights in conference play, JRE rarely moved from his season-long 10 & 9 stat line.
The next step for Robinson-Earl is to find a little more aggression on the offensive end. He has the ability to knock down open threes, and he will certainly get plenty of opportunities with Villanova’s abundance of offensive options. Yes, JRE shot under 33 percent from deep last season, and his shot is a little flat. But he has an encouraging stroke, and his free throw mark (81 percent) is a positive indicator.
It feels like Robinson-Earl should be closer to six three-point attempts per night, rather than the two he averaged last season. More of a perimeter game would give him the perfect complement to his crafty interior arsenal and would make VU’s offense fairly unstoppable.
G James Bouknight, UConn
2019-20: 13.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 46/35/82 percent shooting
While he is a new face to the league, Bouknight will not be a stranger to opposing Big East fans for long. Best known for his dunks, he is a competent three-point shooter and a crafty finisher around the rim (where he shot 58 percent last season). Bouknight may be the best bet to lead the league in scoring beyond the aforementioned Zegarowski and Gillespie.
Bouknight is certainly capable of finding points for himself, but the next step in his development is creating more opportunities for his teammates. As a freshman, among the 268 qualifying players with a usage rate of at least 20 percent, he finished just 180th in assist rate (11.5 percent). And while he did have teammates such as Christian Vital, Alterique Gilbert, and Jalen Gaffney to handle most of the traditional point guard duties last season, it is untenable for a guard to soak up that many possessions without dishing the rock.
With Vital graduating and Gilbert transferring, Bouknight must strike a balance between hunting his own shot and keeping his teammates engaged. He doesn’t need to be Magic Johnson, but averaging at least three dimes per game (assuming Gaffney leads the team in assists) will be more than enough to pair with his scoring numbers.
G/F David Duke, Providence
2019-20: 12 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 41/42/79 percent shooting
It is never flashy up in Friartown, but Duke was 1 of 12 high-major players to average 12 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg, and 1.5 spg last season. He was also a defensive menace, finishing fifth in the Big East in defensive box plus-minus.
Duke already has the versatile, jack-of-all-trades skillset; now he just needs to hone his offensive arsenal. He made big leaps as a shooter between his freshman and sophomore seasons but still needs to improve at the rim. It would also help if he traded out some of his midrange twos, where he collected nearly a quarter of his attempts but shot just 28 percent.
Providence is expected to be a middle-of-the-pack club again this year, which means the Friars will likely worm their way into the top three again. Duke could be a surprise POY candidate if he finds another gear offensively and posts something like a 15/6/4 stat line with his same sterling defense.
G Paul Scruggs, Xavier
2019-20: 12.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 46/37/74 percent shooting
Scruggs has followed the Phil Booth career arc thus far – a well-regarded prospect out of high school who was forced to wait longer than he would have liked for his breakout role. When Villanova’s championship core exited for the pros, Booth grabbed the moment and averaged 19/4/4 en route to a first-team all-Big East honor. Naji Marshall and Tyrique Jones do not have quite the same cache as the 2018 Wildcats, but they did still total over 30 ppg, 17 rpg, and 5 apg last year.
However, Scruggs needs to prove himself without Marshall as the safety net. Scruggs was horribly inefficient when Marshall left the floor last year; his offensive rating fell from 105.1 to 87.8 even as his usage rate spiked from 20 to 30 percent. His turnover rate when from bad to worse, and his mid-range game collapsed as more defenders swarmed him sans Marshall.
While those numbers are not great indicators for Life Without Naji, they aren’t a guarantee either. Offenses are often built around their star player, so that when the star leaves the floor, the offensive system collapses, no matter how good the remaining role players. If Travis Steele can re-shape the offense, Scruggs could thrive as the driving force behind a tourney-bound Xavier team.