Busting Brackets
Fansided

Virginia Basketball: Comparing dominant 3PT defense with the Toronto Raptors

By Jacob Zinkula

CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - MARCH 07: Mamadi Diakite #25 and Braxton Key #2 of the Virginia Cavaliers walk off the court together after a game against the Louisville Cardinals at John Paul Jones Arena on March 7, 2020 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - MARCH 07: Mamadi Diakite #25 and Braxton Key #2 of the Virginia Cavaliers walk off the court together after a game against the Louisville Cardinals at John Paul Jones Arena on March 7, 2020 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
4 of 5
Next
LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA – AUGUST 10: Khris Middleton #22 of the Milwaukee Bucks goes up for a shot against OG Anunoby #3 and Terence Davis #0 of the Toronto Raptors (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA – AUGUST 10: Khris Middleton #22 of the Milwaukee Bucks goes up for a shot against OG Anunoby #3 and Terence Davis #0 of the Toronto Raptors (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

Space on Opponent 3PT Attempts

22.3% of total field goal attempts against Toronto’s defense this season have been “wide open” threes (6+ ft.) (2nd-highest in NBA). This percentage might seem high (and it is), but across the NBA, these shots account for the greatest proportion of 3PT attempts (range of 22.3%-15.1%). The next most frequent 3-pointer is the “open” three (4-6 ft.) (range of 19.8%-12.4%).

Toronto’s defense is allowing a league-best 35.1% on wide open threes, which begs the aforementioned question: are the Raptors just getting lucky?

toronto5
The defense might be great at recovering to close out on shooters for example, but this wouldn’t explain the success on wide open threes. Perhaps these wide open shots are coming late in the shot clock as discussed, and are therefore forced/less efficient? Or as also alluded to, perhaps the Raptors have just excelled at providing the “right players” these wide open shots. /

Even so, could the combination of these factors make that much of an impact? At least when it comes to wide open threes, a significant degree of luck must be at play, right? Either that or Toronto really is operating at some masterful level.

When it comes to the “tight” (2-4 ft.) threes, however, there’s evidence to suggest that less luck is at play. No team has allowed more of these shots (9th-best 3PT%), suggesting the Raptors are as speculated, doing a solid jump closing out on shooters.

Based on the above data, Toronto’s success seems to be driven by both closing out on shooters AND having opponents shoot poorly on wide open attempts. The degree to which luck should be credited remains uncertain.

Location of Opponent Threes

The Raptors’ defense has allowed the most corner threes in NBA history, allowing the most attempts from both the left and right corners this season. The Raptors have fared well on these attempts (8th and 11th in 3PT%).

Given that corner threes tend to be the most efficient 3PT shot, this adds to the mystery of Toronto’s 3PT% success. The same potential explanations apply here also. Perhaps defenders are contesting these attempts well. Perhaps Toronto is selectively letting worse shooters take corner threes. And again, perhaps it comes down to luck.

raptors8
raptors8 /

Although the Raptors have only allowed above the break threes at the 18th-highest rate, the team is notably 1st in 3PT%. Again, the same potential explanations apply, but I decided to take a deeper look at the “selecting shooters” theory when it comes to the team’s exceptional above the break 3PT%.

Perhaps Toronto has strategically allowed centers (generally worse at shooting) to take the bulk of these above the break attempts, and perhaps this is what has been driving the success.

raptors 10
raptors 10 /

The data, however, suggests Toronto’s success has been consistent across all position categories (rank 1st in each). Still, the team’s success relative to the 2nd-best team was most pronounced at the center position (so perhaps there is a little something to this theory).

Home/Virginia Cavaliers