Texas Basketball: Are Longhorns destined for 2020-21 postseason success?
Reasons for Optimism?
Texas is expected to bring every contributor back from last season’s team (99.9% of minutes returning – 1st nationally). Other notable teams returning almost everyone include Richmond (94.3% – 5th), Loyola Chicago (91.7% – 7th) and Missouri (89.0% – 10th). Bringing back everyone isn’t always a good thing, but the Longhorns were fairly young last season (305th in experience), so another year of growth might be just what the team needs.
Although the team will have its fair share of experience, it’s surely hoping to receive contributions from three talented sophomores that saw limited minutes last season. Smart has recruited fairly well since taking over the helm (particularly big men), part of what has made the underperformance frustrating, and these sophomores are yet another example.
7-0 Will Baker, 6-10 Kai Jones, and 6-5 Donovan Williams were ranked 37th, 53rd, and 97th respectively in the 2019 class by ESPN. This trio only saw 8.4, 16.7, and 11.0 minutes per game in 2019-20, however, and given their recruiting pedigree, there’s reason to believe at least one takes a significant step forward in 2020-21.
Speaking of recruiting, the Longhorns will be adding 6-8 freshman Greg Brown (#9 per ESPN), who should be able to make an impact from day one. In terms of returning players, Texas will need its five key upperclassmen in Matt Coleman, Courtney Ramey, Jase Febres, Andrew Jones, and Jericho Sims to improve on the margins. The team was solid defensively last season (24th per KenPom) but only 153rd offensively.
Turnovers were an issue, but the team’s biggest problem was its inability to generate easy points at the foul line. Texas ranked 350th nationally in free throw rate, and even when they did get there, only made a 260th-best 68.5 percent. For a program that has prided itself on recruiting big men (who generally draw fouls if effective), this statistic is quite jarring.