Texas Basketball: Are Longhorns destined for 2020-21 postseason success?

“NIT Magic”

The college basketball world might not be as optimistic as Barttorvik’s preseason model (has Texas at #2), but the Longhorns are generally expected to be a top-25 team in 2020-21. Joe Lunardi’s early Bracketology has the team earning a 4-seed, which would be tied for the program’s highest seed since 2010-11.

It’s obviously VERY early to talk about the NCAA Tournament, but this level of seeding would put the program in position to secure its first tournament victory since 2013-14 and its first Sweet Sixteen since 2007-08.

Besides the reasons for optimism discussed above, there is a more under-the-radar factor that suggests Texas could have some tournament success this season. Under Smart, the Longhorns have not only struggled in the NCAA Tournament but haven’t shined in the Big 12 tournament either (haven’t advanced past 2nd round).

After falling a bit short of the Big Dance two seasons ago, however, Texas did manage to win the NIT as a 2-seed. And although this “championship” likely didn’t do too much to excite Longhorns fans, there is some track record for this kind of postseason success translating into NCAA Tournament success in seasons to come.

Wichita State is the most notable NIT example. After winning the NIT tournament in 2010-11, Gregg Marshall’s Shockers made a shocking Final Four as a 9-seed just two seasons later. Stanford and Baylor also exceeded tournament expectations in years following their NIT victories (“cont” refers to “minutes continuity” in below charts).

Some winners of the even less notable CBI have surprised in the following seasons as well. VCU and Loyola Chicago are the most prominent examples, with Shaka Smart’s Rams squad going from the First Four to the Final Four the following year, and Loyola Chicago making a similar Cinderella run three seasons after its CBI championship.

Oregon and Nevada serve as other examples of teams that surprised. Shaka Smart managed to access some of this “CBI magic” back in 2010-11. Could he find some “NIT magic” with the Longhorns during the upcoming season?

Although Texas is the best candidate to have tournament success, it’s worth noting the other recent NIT and CBI champions that will be looking to add themselves to the list of overachieving tournament teams.

Penn State: The 2017-18 NIT winner might have been primed to fill this role last season, with the Nittany Lions projected to earn a 6-seed. Unfortunately, Penn State loses some key contributors (e.g. Lamar Stevens) and isn’t currently projected to make the tournament in 2020-21. There’s still some solid talent on the roster, however, so who knows?

North Texas: The 2017-18 CBI champions could be an intriguing Cinderella pick next March. The Mean Green likely had their best team in program history last season, ranking 77th in KenPom and a projected 13-seed. North Texas is 0-3 overall in the NCAA Tournament, with its two most recent appearances coming as a 15-seed in both 2007 and 2010 (prior appearance 1988).

The Mean Green lose a few contributors but return a core that should make them competitive again in 2020-21. North Texas is unlikely to earn an at-large bid, however, so it will have to rely on the Conference USA tournament to secure a ticket to the Big Dance (Old Dominion and Western Kentucky among competitors).

South Florida: Coming off a CBI championship and ranking 22nd in minutes continuity, last season seemed to set up well for the Bulls. The team disappointed, however, going only 14-17 overall and finishing 125th in KenPom.

South Florida should be competitive in the American Athletic Conference this season, but the program might have let its chance at “CBI magic” slip through its fingers.