2. Both the Tar Heels and Wildcats have solid defenses – but their mediocre offenses create problems for them
If the Tar Heels and Wildcats have something to be proud of as a team, it has been their defense. They are not fantastic defensively by way of points per game – Kentucky holds teams to 65.8 points per game, the 105th-best mark, and UNC is behind at 67.2, which ranks 126th – but their defensive points per possession indicate that they are better.
Both squads hold teams to 0.83 points per possession. They also rank among in the top 100 in a few defensive categories – Kentucky, for example, ranks 54th in 3PT-defense (27.5%) and 69th in effective FG-defense (45.6%). UNC, meanwhile, ranks 66th in 2P-defense (44.7%), primarily because of their frontcourt – and they also allow teams to get an offensive rebound just 23.4% of the time.
When Kentucky can hold teams to 65 or below, they have a shot – they did that against Morehead State and won, and they lost to Kansas and Notre Dame by one possession. They allowed Richmond and Georgia Tech to score over 75 and were blown out. This is because their offense has been so lackluster – they average 66.4 points per game (266th), and score just 0.80 points per possession.
But North Carolina has not been much better, either. Like Kentucky, they – for the most part – win when holding teams to below 70 points, with Texas being the lone exception. They failed to defend Iowa’s sharpshooters, and subsequently, their offense was unable to keep up. They fare better offensively than Kentucky, scoring 74.0 points per game (167th) – but they are scoring just 0.84 points per possession.
A primary issue for both teams has been their subpar three-point shooting. North Carolina ranks 275th from beyond the arc, draining just 27.0% of their shots – and Kentucky is even worse at 24.4%, good for 297th. Similarly, both are average from the line – Kentucky at 69.0% and UNC at 67.5%.
Subsequently, both are forced to rely so much on inside play. Neither teams shoot particularly well inside, with UNC at 176th on 49.1% and Kentucky at 125th behind a 51.5% clip – but both rank in the top 35 in point distribution on two-pointers. At least 59% of UNC’s offense has come from inside (34th), while Kentucky has seen 62.7% of their offensive production come from two-pointers (14th).
It is not unreasonable to expect this game to be in the 50s, a stark contrast to some of the high-flying, exciting games we have seen between these two programs as of late. Both teams have extreme offensive woes that need to be addressed and fixed – UNC, if they hope to compete in the ACC, and Kentucky if they hope to even be in the conversation on the national level this season.