3. Alabama thrived on second-chance points against the Terrapins, and UCLA must prevent that
Against Maryland, the Crimson Tide thrived on the offensive glass, hauling down 15 caroms and throttling the Terrapins in second-chance points, 23-6. It is now the Tide’s 10th-straight game with double-digit offensive rebounds, and Alabama’s second-straight performance where the opponent was held to under 30 total boards – and less than 10 offensive boards.
The former stat should come as no surprise, considering the Crimson Tide are 53rd in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom – and rank 29th in offensive boards per game at 12.4.
The latter goes against what Alabama has proven all season, with their defense allowing teams to haul down an offensive carom on 29.0% of their attempts, one percent worse than the Div. I average – but the Crimson Tide still ranks 25th in the country in defensive rebounds per game, with 28.1.
Keeping Alabama off the glass is crucial for UCLA, and their defensive numbers indicate that they are capable of that. The Bruins are not necessarily reliant on the offensive glass, hauling down just 9.9 this season – but they hold teams to just 7.9 caroms. UCLA allowed Michigan State to bring in 10 offensive boards, just the 10th time an opponent has logged double-digits in that category – before keeping BYU and Abilene Christian to single-digits.
Subsequently, the Bruins outrebounded all three foes on the offensive glass – and outscored the latter two in second-chance points by fairly sizeable margins. UCLA may not have the ability to outscore the Crimson Tide in that category, but they must limit the number of offensive boards that Alabama can rip down.
Keeping Alabama off the glass begins with locating, boxing out, and shutting down the 6-8 Herb Jones III, who leads the team in offensive rebounding percentage at 9.2% and hauls in just over 2.4 a game. But a number of Alabama players have enjoyed success in that area, with six different players logging an offensive rebound in the win over Maryland.
The backcourt of Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Cody Riley must keep Jones and other Alabama players from getting into the paint and getting either easy putbacks or kick-outs to wide-open three-point shooters – or it could be a long night for the Bruins.
Maryland’s Mark Turgeon called Alabama the “fifth no. 1 seed” for good reason, and the Bruins will have a daunting task ahead of them if they hope to keep their Cinderella season alive. But their recent play – after enduring the four-game losing streak – invites optimism, and the Bruins have the capabilities on both ends of the court to pull off the massive upset and end Alabama’s historic 2020-21 campaign.