Bracketology Bubble Watch: Could WCC get more bids than the ACC?

ACC

Lock: Duke Blue Devils

Duke is the only team you can confidently pencil into the bracket from the ACC right now. They have a NET of 12, are 4-1 in Quad 1 games, and have that lovely win over Gonzaga on their resume. Duke is still in the mix for a 1 seed. Even if they don’t get a 1 seed, they will still get a top 16 protected seed in the tournament and should be a second-weekend team.

If Duke plays to their potential and plays like they did early in the year they should not lose again the rest of the regular season. That would have them entering ACC tournament play with a 28-3 record and a 6-1 record in Quad 1 games. That should be enough to get them a top 8 seed in the last ride for Coach K.

On the Bubble

North Carolina Tar Heels

In last week’s “Buy or Sell” I touched on North Carolina and their resume. They are going to have a very good record, but the record isn’t going to have much substance. North Carolina may still get in the tournament because the metrics favor them, and they are going to pile up wins against bad competition.

North Carolina really needs to be Duke once for them to feel safe as they still have zero quad 1 wins. They are 0-6 in the quad 1 games they have played this year up to date. They still have four more quad 1 games left in the regular season and if the Tar Heels get their signature win over Duke then it would be safe to go ahead and pencil them into the tournament.

Miami Hurricanes

The Hurricanes are going to be a very interesting case study on Selection Sunday. The NET ranking is currently in the ’60s, so they are a firm bubble team right now. Miami is also currently tied for second place with North Carolina at the top of the ACC standings and they do have a win over Duke and Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are also a bubble team.

Miami does only have two quad 1 wins and they didn’t have a great November. If the Hurricanes continue to win and end the year as a top-tier team in the ACC they should get into the tournament. The Duke win is going to hold a lot of weight going into selection Sunday.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake Forest was not supposed to be on the bubble this year they were originally projected to be near the bottom of the ACC, and they have surpassed all expectations in head coach Steve Forbes’s second year in Winston Salem. Wake Forest may very well have the Player of Year in the league in Alondes Williams and Williams may very well will this team to the tournament.

The Demon Deacons currently have a NET which is right where it needs to be heading into selection Sunday for at large consideration. They do only have one quad 1 win, but the thing that is elevating the resume for Wake Forest right now is they have zero quad 3 or 4 losses on the resume. That is going to reflect positively on the committee come selection Sunday.

Florida State Seminoles

Florida State was a team I had ranked in the top 20 to start the season, but they have not played well enough to earn that ranking and if the selection was today they would likely find themselves on the outside looking in. They are on the bubble as they are also in the mix to win the regular-season title. The Seminoles have also swept Miami and beaten Duke. They have two of the better wins in the ACC.

Florida State also has some bad losses as well. They have lost to Syracuse, South Carolina, and Georgia Tech. No team on this list is going to have those losses but Florida State does have some good wins to hopefully offset those. The Seminoles currently have a NET of 79 which would keep them on the outside looking in right now.

Work Left to Do

Virginia Tech Hokies

The Hokies still have a path to the NCAA tournament as an at-large even despite their recent struggles. It is extremely unlikely that Virginia Tech does make the NCAA tournament given they are currently sitting right about .500 on the season. They are also 0-3 in their Quad 1 games but do have some wins against some decent teams. They crushed Saint Bonaventure earlier on in the year and just recently beat Florida State.

The NET metric likes Virginia Tech as they are currently a quad 1 win when teams play in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is a bottom-tier ACC team and wouldn’t be here without the high NET, and frankly other than that and them winning 9-10 to close it out there is no chance, even if the metrics do like them.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

When I watched the Maui Invitational there was no way I thought Notre Dame would be anywhere near the tournament. Then head coach Mike Brey decided he was going to insert freshman Blake Wesley into the lineup and then the Irish took off so to speak. They still have work to do as they only have one good win. That win however was at Rupp Arena, when they beat Kentucky which is one of the hardest places in the country to win. The NET is currently in the 70’s and they do have a quad 3 loss to worry about.

Other than that, with a few more wins over fellow bubble teams like Miami, Florida State, and Wake Forest the Irish should find themselves on the right side of the bubble. That is a tall task though as those other teams are going to be fighting for their tournament lives.