NCAA Basketball: Biggest question for 2022-23 power conference favorites
Big East: Can Greg McDermott’s elite defense bring enough firepower offensively?
First and foremost, Greg McDermott deserves all the credit in the world for his success at Creighton. A lot of coaches plant their flag in one way of playing and if the roster doesn’t lend itself to that mold, then the team struggles. In his first 11 years at Creighton, McDermott’s teams have an average offensive efficiency ranking of 28.4 at KenPom. Last year they were 112th. Last year’s team was 19th in defensive efficiency, the previous high was 32nd two seasons ago.
The Bluejays still won 23 games, 12 of which came in Big East play, advanced to the Round of 32, and took the eventual national champion Kansas Jayhawks down to the wire. No one has any questions about McDermott’s ability to coach good offense. After last season, no one should have any doubts about McDermott getting the best out of his roster regardless of which side of the floor the personnel lean.
Straight up, Creighton’s offense wasn’t good enough last season to win a Big East conference. Not even close. Since 2009, only one team has won the Big East finishing outside the top four in offensive efficiency during conference play. That team was Louisville in 2009. They finished ninth in the conference that season but were the second-best defense in the whole country and forced lots of turnovers in vintage Rick Pitino fashion. The overwhelming majority of the data suggests you need to be a top-three offense in the Big East to win the conference. Last year the Bluejays were ninth behind only Georgetown and Butler. The Hoyas and Bulldogs’ average efficiency rating were 163.5, so not good.
Those struggles started with the 3-point line. Creighton was outside the top 300 in 3-point field goal percentage. Only two players – Ryan Hawkins and Alex O’Connell – averaged better than 31 percent from deep on a substantial number of threes per contest. Even those guys weren’t all that terrifying. Neither guy was better than 35.8 percent.
The Bluejays were actually a pretty solid interior offense team last season at 47th nationally, but it’s so hard to be efficient when making as few threes as the Jays did. With such a young backcourt in Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander, Creighton also struggled with turnovers with a sub-325 turnover percentage. That should remedy itself, to a certain extent, as a byproduct of Nembhard and Alexander getting one year older. Even within last season, Nembhard went from five 5+ turnover games before conference play to just one in the Big East.
There’s reason for optimism.
That optimism starts with Baylor Scheierman. The South Dakota State transfer is the reigning Summit Player of the Year averaging 16.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists. Most importantly, he did it on 50/46(!)/80 splits. The guy is an elite shooter with unlimited range at 6’7. The shooting is the flashy headline in the context of Creighton, but he’s much more of an offensive threat. He’s not just a catch-and-shoot guy. The first thing you pick up in film is his ability to create space off the dribble beyond the arc and in the mid-range.
His big frame makes him hard to guard already, but his simple, yet crafty ball handling helps him create even more space. He should contribute to the playmaking of Creighton’s offense as a willing and skilled passer. His 4.5 assists per game will fit nicely into an offense that is built on ball movement
Scheierman isn’t the only newcomer with a knack for shooting. TCU transfer Francisco Farabello brings his 38 percent 3-point shooting with him from Fort Worth as a backup guard. It’s not insignificant to mention that NBA sharpshooter Mike Miller has his bloodline on this basketball team. His son, Mason, redshirted last season and is in a much better spot physically than he was a year ago. He’s gotta contribute from deep, right? McDermott expects he will.
Nembhard and Alexander should continue to improve on productive freshmen seasons. There are no hesitations about the quality of the Creighton backcourt, especially with the addition of Scheierman. As long as the Bluejays can get perimeter shooting to complement the top-end talent and an elite defense, Creighton should factor into the national conversation and win the Big East.