NCAA Basketball Best Bets: Top futures picks to make 2023 Final Four

Creighton +700

The Creighton Blue Jays entered the season ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll for a reason. This team returned a bunch of talent from last year and made a major addition in South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman. As a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament last March, Creighton came back from nine down with under four minutes to play vs San Diego State, eventually winning in overtime.  In the Round of 32, they put up an impressive fight in a loss to eventual National Champion Kansas. With both Ryan Nembhard and Ryan Kalkbrenner out with injuries, the Blue Jays were right there — trailing by just one point with under two minutes to go in the eventual 79-72 loss.

This time entering March, Creighton is fully healthy. Their starting five is one of the best in the nation in my opinion, sporting five different guys who can go off for 25+ on any given night. That is why I think this team is built for March — this team excels on both ends of the floor (27th in offense on KenPom, 10th defensively) and boasts an incredibly balanced starting lineup.

Nembhard is a pure point guard who is great at facilitating and scoring out of the pick-and-roll. Scheierman is a do-it-all guy who is elite from behind the arc and a great rebounder. Trey Alexander is another super-talented guard who can score at all three levels as well. The seven-foot Kalkbrenner is a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year and a dominant low-post scorer. Arthur Kaluma averages the lowest points per game of the five, which says a lot considering he is an NBA talent who went for 24 and 12 rebounds in that loss to Kansas last March.

Essentially, each of these five players are a “go-to guy”. Not many teams have four players in their starting five who are all able to create for themselves off the dribble. Oh and that fifth starter? He’s arguably their best player.

Kalkbrenner missing time early in the season and the Blue Jays going on a six-game losing streak was a blessing in disguise. They battled their adversity early on, and even though they are 3-3 since their eight-game winning streak in Jan/Feb, this team has still playing at a very high level lately. The three losses — on the road against a desperate and dangerous Villanova team, by two points vs Big East Champion Marquette, and a double-overtime loss at Providence.

The lack of bench points is a potential concern with this group, as Greg McDermott only gets an average of 11.8 points of those per game, which is bottom 15 in the nation. However, when March comes around, starters are playing heavy minutes, and sometimes you only need a little bit from your bench. The Jays have a big man who can give Kalkbrenner a breather or hold steady if he gets in foul trouble in freshman Fred King. Mike Miller’s son Mason is capable from behind the arc (38.8%), and while he’s been cold this season (28.2%), TCU transfer Fransisco Farabello shot over 40% from deep across three seasons before coming to Omaha.

This team checks plenty of boxes of a team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. They are elite defensively and have several dudes who can explode offensively.

At 20-11, this group is going to be underseeded on Selection Sunday. KenPom ranks them as the 12th-best team in the country, but they will likely end up between a No. 5 – 7 seed. Get in now at +700, because that number will drop if they win the Big East Tournament.