McNeese State (10-5) (NET: 65)
0-2 (Q1), 1-2 (Q2), 3-1 (Q3), 4-0 (Q4)
Will Wade put together a schedule packed with opportunities, though his Cowboys only took advantage a couple times. The best win is at home over North Texas nearly two months ago, while the two of the Quad 3 wins came during the Paradise Jam just after that.
The problem is failed opportunities, as the Cowboys have lost three times as favorites, including in that Quad 3 loss against South Dakota State on opening night. That alone might have sunk their resume, though they actually looked good in closer losses to Alabama and Mississippi State on the road.
The problem for McNeese State is that looking good against the best isn’t good enough here. Their NET has risen in recent days but it’s all Quad 3 and 4 games from here on out in the Southland and they absolutely must be perfect to even be in this conversation. Not only that, they might have to blowout most of those teams.
We’re mentioning the Cowboys despite those early losses because the metrics are in decent shape and this could be a sneaky team in the NCAA Tournament, but you’re not going to see them in the Dance unless they strike gold in the Southland Tournament for a second year in a row.
Nevada (8-7) (NET: 64)
0-3 (Q1), 2-1 (Q2), 3-3 (Q3), 3-0 (Q4)
The Wolf Pack beat Big Ten team Washington at home (Quad 3) and later picked up a pair of Quad 2 wins over Santa Clara and VCU. They later added a Big 12 victory over Oklahoma State, which is unfortunately also a Quad 3 win at the moment.
The problems mount with the losses and they really are stacking up in recent weeks. Losing away from home to Vanderbilt and New Mexico is fine, but those Quad 3 losses are Colorado State, Loyola Marymount, and Wyoming and all came in the last five weeks.
Nevada has actually lost four straight games and has to turn things around instantly to save any at-large possibility. The record is in terrible shape and they need to win these upcoming games against the lower teams in the MWC lest they become one of them themselves.
Right now, Nevada isn’t close but they can actually get into consideration if they can win games against the Boise State and Utah State types in this conference in the coming weeks. Right now, nobody would or should consider the Wolf Pack, especially with how they’ve been playing, but time hasn’t quite run out in Reno.