Bracketology 2024: Latest Bubble Watch of key teams in mid-February

Cincinnati (15-9) (NET: 35)
2-6 (Q1), 2-2 (Q2), 3-1 (Q3), 8-0 (Q4)

Adjusting to a new league is never easy but Cincinnati has taken year one in the Big 12 in stride. They didn’t play the most appealing schedule early in the season but got a great win at BYU in early January and followed that up with a second Quad 1 win at Texas Tech a few weeks later.

The problem for the Bearcats is that Big 12 play has been relentless. They’ve lost home games to Texas and Oklahoma that are Quad 2 defeats and dropped a tough Quad 3 game at West Virginia in late January. They’ve actually lost seven of their last ten games, including a pair of Quad 1 chances at home the last few days.

A couple nice wins here and there isn’t going to get Cincinnati into the Big Dance. This recent trend cannot continue. They’ll need to increase that number of Quad 1 wins and the opportunities are fleeting. Their final four road games are all Quad 1 chances, but how many can Cincinnati actually win?

Colorado (16-8) (NET: 38)
1-5 (Q1), 5-3 (Q2), 3-0 (Q3), 7-0 (Q4)

Notable wins are the biggest problem for Colorado, whose only Quad 1 victory was a nice performance at Washington in late January. They had a really nice blowout win over Miami back in December, but didn’t have many chances to impress in nonconference play, nor against a weak Pac-12.

They’ve managed to avoid any rough losses, with those Quad 2 defeats coming to Florida State, Arizona State, and California, all away from home. Obviously, none of those performances was ideal, especially with their early struggles in conference play, but it could be worse for the Buffaloes.

Here’s the trouble in Colorado: they’ve already gotten mashed twice by Arizona and might not have another Quad 1 opportunity depending on how things turn out. Road tests at UCLA and USC are almost must-win this upcoming weekend, though a road trip to Oregon on March 6th might be the biggest test.