No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers at No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels (-3)
Both teams enter Saturday’s contest with five game streaks that are underwhelming. North Carolina is 3-2, while Virginia is worse at 2-3.
North Carolina’s last loss, at Duke, meant the Blue Devils climbed within one game of first place in the ACC. Florida State and Louisville are also just one back in a ridiculous and crowded field at the top.
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Virginia was at the top, but now sits two games back and is in search of itself. The Cavaliers blew a 14-point halftime lead at rival Virginia Tech and lost in double overtime. Next came a home loss against Duke. Suddenly, Virginia looks vulnerable and in prime position for a three-game losing streak.
The line in this one surprised me. Given the direction of both teams and the fact that North Carolina was at home, I would have thought the Tar Heels would be giving almost seven points. Three points seems like a steal.
If you are paused in taking the Tar Heels, there might be some truth to it. North Carolina is just 12-13-1 against the spread this season. Virginia is 14-9. The Cavaliers also have an impressive 4-2 mark on the road over their last 10 games.
Still, with this line, the location and the way Virginia has struggled, I have to go North Carolina. I think the Tar Heels will push the ball and Virginia will not be able to keep up. Expect an 8-10 point win from the Heels.