NCAA Basketball: Picks for three top 25 Match-ups
No. 13 Florida Gators at No. 11 Kentucky Wildcats (-5)
Many people thought Florida would be improved this season under second year man Mike White, but being locked into a conference title race with juggernaut Kentucky has defied all expectations.
Yet, here we are in the SEC with three games to go, as the Gators travel to Lexington to play Kentucky. Winner will take sole possession of first place and in the driver’s seat for a regular season conference title.
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Kentucky has not looked sharp over its last two games – two less than impressive victories over middling SEC programs Georgia and Missouri. Still, the Wildcats have not lost since getting blown out in Gainesville on February 4th.
The Wildcats HAVE to do better on the boards in this one. Florida destroyed them 54-29 as five players for the Gators had five rebounds or more in the game. Florida also used its length to disrupt Kentucky’s offense and held the Wildcats to 37% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc.
It felt a little bit like the first score (88-66 Florida) was an extreme. A night when Florida played out of its mind, while Kentucky struggled mightily. However, that doesn’t mean anyone should discount Florida. They can absolutely go into Rupp today and come out with a victory. To do that, they need more out of their front court and their back court needs to play more efficiently.
For clues from a betting perspective, Florida has been strong on the road. The Gators are 4-1 over their last five road games and 7-3 overall on the season. Kentucky is 13-6 overall at home against the spread, but only 2-3 over its last five.
The more points the Wildcats give up, the more I get queasy about Kentucky. Vegas clearly still has some questions about Florida’s ability to win at Rupp. I agree, and think the Wildcats come out strong today and take control of the SEC race. Pick the Wildcats.