NCAA Basketball: Top 10 “Win Total” bets to avoid for 2021-22 season
By Ian Mumm
2. Kentucky Wildcats: Line = 26.0 Wins
Last year was undeniably the worst season of the John Calipari era and the worst season by any Kentucky coach since 1989-90 when Rick Pitino took over the program from Eddie Sutton. Nothing went right, despite the consistent influx of talent, and the pieces just never came together.
Fortunately, this season a whole new group has arrived in Lexington, but for any doubters that Calipari has somehow lost control of this program or won’t get this group back on track there are plenty of reasons opposing that thinking.
The 2021 group was the worst shooting Kentucky team under Calipari and it’s not even close. Ranked in the bottom-75 and bottom-50 respectively in field goal % and 2-point field goal %, the Wildcats could not put the ball in the basket in areas conducive to piling on points. It wasn’t for a lack of 2nd-chance opportunities, as the program was 42nd nationally in offensive rebounds per game with 12.0. Last year’s team was only able to eclipse the 2020 season average of 46.1% from the floor four times and simply couldn’t get the ball in the hoop on a consistent basis.
Coach Calipari has made big efforts this offseason to ensure those issues won’t pop up again. Notably landing Sahvir Wheeler (Georgia) and Kellan Grady (Davidson) via the transfer portal, the Kentucky backcourt now features a very balanced and multi-faceted outlook. Wheeler has made a name for himself getting downhill and picking defenses apart, while Grady has been a highly consistent scorer at all three levels. They will be joined by returning leading scorer Davion Mintz, former Iowa glue-guy CJ Frederick, and 5-star freshman TyTy Washington.
The frontcourt has been beefed up as well, but getting back to roster construction with strong primary initiators is what will make all players on this roster comfortable in games. This year’s team has the means to complete an immediate bounceback towards the top of the college ranks and eight meetings against non-Power 5 teams prior to SEC play kicking off should put this team well on pace to exceed 26 wins.
Even if this year’s Wildcats group experiences some issues against the likes of Duke, Ohio State, and other SEC powers, Kentucky could have up to 36 opportunities to pile on wins prior to making the NCAA Tournament. The Southeastern Conference is no joke, but the typical Calipari teams should again find a way to emerge this season.
Avoid Under 26.0