Rick Pitino’s return to relevance at St. John’s has been one of the dominant storylines of the college basketball season, but on a night when Rick’s Johnnies dropped their second Big East contest of the season, his son Richard’s New Mexico Lobos improved to 13-1 in the Mountain West with a thrilling 71-67 home victory over Wyoming.
Not only did New Mexico maintain its pristine conference record in what appears to be a three-bid Mountain West this season, but the Lobos extended their current win streak to seven. At 20-4, New Mexico has only lost two games since the start of December, an 89-83 overtime loss to New Mexico State on December 7, and a 71-70 defeat at the hands of San Jose State in mid-January. The Lobos check in at No. 40 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings through February 12 and are 38th in Kenpom, nine spots shy of where they finished a season ago.
Unlike his father, who took Providence to the Final Four in his second year as the head coach of a major conference program and rode that upward trajectory through an eight-year stint at Kentucky before finally hitting some turbulence as the head coach of the Boston Celtics, Richard struggled to reach exit velocity.
He got an early start as a 30-year head coach of Florida International, parlaying one season there into the Minnesota job, but he managed just a 141-123 record with only two NCAA Tournament appearances in Minneapolis. Now, in Year 4 in Albuquerque, he’s building a mid-major powerhouse and looks poised to christen his arrival at the big kid's table in college basketball with a deep March Madness run.
While the Red Storm are rolling and the Lobos are almost certainly heading back to the NCAA Tournament after last March’s first-round exit, this year’s Big Dance looks to be a father-son affair for the first family of college basketball.
Can New Mexico punch its ticket to March Madness?
One of the biggest reasons that the answer to that question appears to be a resounding yes, is a gift Rick sent to Richard when the elder Pitino departed Iona for the job at St. John’s. After three seasons under Rick, center Nelly Junior Joseph joined Richard at New Mexico, and this season the 6-foot-10 product of Benin City, Nigeria, has blossomed into one of the conference’s most dominant defensive forces.
While junior guard Donovan Dent’s improvement in the absence of Jamal Mashburn Jr. Jaelen House and JT Toppin, could enable New Mexico to repeat as conference champs Joseph and his two-way impact is why Pitino’s team could go even further in the only tournament the coaches are truly judged by.
Dent is the Lobo’s leading scorer and orchestrates the fast-paced attack that Richard inherited from his father, but it’s his playmaking that allowed the Lobos to escape the Wednesday night upset threat at “The Pit.” With the game on the line, Dent turned down a one-on-one from the top of the key to feed freshman wing Jovan Milicevic, who knocked down the dagger three. His relentless attacking mindset allows the team to excel despite its frantic style of offensive basketball, but Joseph’s improved efficiency and dominance on the offensive boards allow the Lobos to be functional when the game slows down.
18.8% of New Mexico’s field goal attempts come in transition (97th percentile) and 20% of its points come on fast-break opportunities (30.3% of Dent’s). The Lobos are 4th by Kenpom adjusted tempo and shoot nearly 60% on their transition attempts, a number that drops to 42.8% in the half-court, an improvement over last season’s half-court offense. Of the team’s regular contributors, Joseph scores the lowest percentage of his points in transition because 22.7% of his points come on second-chance opportunities.
Pitino didn’t make big transfer portal splashes to replace his outgoing talent, instead, he relied on internal development and that bet is paying off with a team that has the Cinderella Search Committee on high alert.
In 2023-24, a season when the Mountain West sent a record six teams to the NCAA tournament, New Mexico snuck in as an automatic qualifier. This year, even if they slip up in the conference tournament, the Lobos are projected for an at-large bid, as is Utah State.
The Lobos and the Aggies are set to meet this Saturday at “The Pit.” The Lobos look to be for real, but if not, then they’ll get exposed over the next three games with Utah State, Boise State, and San Diego State on deck to end the month.
Why the slipper may not fit the Lobos
As an 11-seed last year, New Mexico was a popular upset pick over Clemson in the Round of 64. Then, Pitino’s group went ice cold. The Lobos shot under 30% from the field and 3-23 from the three. Clemson managed the pace, and crucially, didn’t turn the ball over, holding New Mexico to a season-low six points off turnovers.
There’s no recipe to overcome a shooting performance like Pitino’s team had in the tournament last season, and if it happens again, it’ll spell doom for their Cinderella hopes. The Lobos aren’t an improved team from deep, and much prefer to attack the basket, but Wednesday night’s hero might be the solution.
Milicevic surpassed 20 minutes for the first time on Saturday against Air Force, and again Wednesday when he found his way into the closing group in a career-high 24 minutes. The 6-foot-10 forward from Toronto is shooting 52.6% from deep this season, and while New Mexico’s defense takes a step back with him on the floor, its offensive rating jumps to 120.3, a trade-off Pitino is likely willing to make.
If Milicevic cools off with an increased workload, the Lobos will struggle with a physical team that has an interior defensive presence, wants to slow to pace, and doesn’t turn the ball over; the exact matchup they drew a year ago and the probable antidote to Rick Pitino’s Johnnies.
Cinderella Search Committee Watchlist:
- George Mason (Jan 22)
- North Texas (Jan 30)
- Drake (February 5)
- New Mexico (February 13)